Trump finally stopped pretending; the war has escalated from remote strikes to ground combat, and the war is expected to extend another 3-4 weeks. Previously, he repeatedly talked about "peace talks" or "ending the fight soon," which now seem like a joke. Will there be a sharp drop at the opening on Monday?

I think the probability is quite high. Because think about it, if the fighting continues for another month, and the crypto market and US stocks fall for another month, wouldn't retail investors sell early for a better price and still get a higher exit point? So the escalation of the war is very likely to change some investors' previous thoughts, and Monday's market is theoretically not optimistic.
However, Trump remains a variable. Remember what Trump did when the war started on Monday the 9th? He told blatant lies! He said the war would end soon, causing oil prices to plummet from 118 to 80, and crypto and US stocks to surge. So this Monday, I have no reason to be bullish, only to be especially cautious of a Trump Gank.