Bitcoin Evening Outlook

Currently, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase after a decline, and many are trying to catch the bottom and go long at this level. This optimism may be premature.

From a technical perspective, three consecutive shooting star candles above indicate a rejection of higher prices, showing that the bulls are clearly losing momentum. For a genuine rebound, the closing price must stay above 66,781. The three attempts to push higher have all failed to break this level, so a rebound is unlikely to happen.

Don't be misled by the mindset that "after a big drop, a rebound is due." In a trend, price action alone is meaningless; the key is the position. Currently, a head-and-shoulders pattern has formed within the flag, with the neckline at 66,261. If broken, the hourly bearish structure will be confirmed, likely leading to a test of the previous low at 65,501.

If 65,501 is broken, the current consolidation zone will be invalidated, and the downside space will open up to the 64,196–63,038 range.

On the daily chart, the outlook is even less optimistic: the flag pattern has broken, the EMA20 support has been lost, and the MACD has fallen below zero, indicating that the bears are in full control. If the price cannot reclaim the flag pattern and regain the moving averages, the next target is the 62,210–59,888 previous low area.

Trading Suggestions

• Break above 66,883 with volume → Light long positions to chase the rebound on the right side

• Break below 66,288 with volume and fail to rebound → Follow the trend and go short on the right side
Strictly set stop-losses, avoid holding through large swings, and do not try to guess the bottom.

• 1H chart stabilizes above 66,781 → Target 67,798–68,100

• 4H chart breaks below 66,303 → Target 65,398–64,038

The overall strategy is mainly bearish, only consider reversing to bullish if the daily flag pattern is reclaimed and the price moves back above the moving averages. Focus on changes in momentum.