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Good evening, everyone! Market analysis! Thank you all for your support!
Jin10 Data, March 30 — As the Houthi forces in Yemen officially become involved in Middle Eastern conflicts and more U.S. troops are stationed in the region, oil prices have risen. Market concerns over escalating conflict have intensified, further threatening the stability of the energy market. Both WTI and Brent crude opened about 1% higher on Monday, with futures surging over 3%. The Brent crude spot spread highlights market worries about severe short-term supply tightness: on Monday, the near-month contract was priced at a premium of $7.58 per barrel over the next month, compared to nearly zero a week before the outbreak of hostilities. Over the weekend, Houthi forces launched missiles and drones at Israel, and the organization stated they will continue actions until attacks targeting Iran cease. Although the Houthis did not specify targeting ships passing through the southern Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, they do possess such capabilities.
"Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin posted on X platform that Trump has issued a 48-hour final ultimatum to Iran, demanding the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with the situation escalating. He pointed out three impacts: diplomatic buffer broken, Iran and Japan's low-key negotiation path may end; the nature of the conflict escalates, and if strikes expand to civilian infrastructure, the long-term war probability will increase; oil market volatility OVX has risen to 93, far exceeding the stock market volatility index VIX at 24, indicating that oil market risk is significantly higher than the stock market. Overall, oil prices and market volatility may rise, and the duration of the conflict is expected to extend.