In the cracks of this era, clarity is more important than diligence.

The US-Iran war has entered its 29th day, and Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. You need to understand, this isn't just about a few deaths; energy costs are the most destructive factor. This means the Federal Reserve's planned rate cuts in 2026 could become illusory, or they might be forced to continue raising interest rates to suppress inflation. If interest rates don't fall but instead rise, the stock market and high-leverage assets will be revalued downward. If you're fully invested in the market, you're just a harvested leek.
When liquidity may dry up, cash is always king.
Iran has now lost its core leader, facing domestic unrest. Its only leverage is to drag everyone down with it. Instead of directly confronting US troops, it attacks Saudi oil fields and blocks shipping lanes. This will cause another break in the global supply chain. The market hasn't fully digested the expectation of a "long-term war" yet; many still hope for peace negotiations within a few weeks, which is unrealistic. If negotiations break down and a prolonged attrition war begins, the world will enter a stagflation scenario. At this point, all paper wealth will shrink, and only energy control and underlying productive capacity will hold influence.
In 2026, there are many opportunities to earn 100%, but the risk of losing 100% is even greater. During wartime, any rumors of "peace talks" can trigger a market rebound, but as long as the Strait of Hormuz isn't truly open, such rebounds are just false signals. Don't waste your bullets on these short-term cycles.
Rogers predicted that 2026 would be the year of a financial crisis. Now it seems the US-Iran conflict is most likely the black swan's wing. The smoke of war will eventually clear, but only those who walk out with bullets will be qualified to share the post-war dividends. Every bit of restraint now is future compound interest for a comeback!