Price $SOL ‌ Facing a 12% Downside Risk as Quick Funds Bet on Rally

The current Solana price remains near a key level, but its structure still leans bearish. After dropping nearly 5% today, SOL is testing the main support while showing early signs of a rebound.

The question isn't just about the price, but also about behavior. The most aggressive holders are starting to re-enter positions. This raises an important question: Is this the beginning of a recovery, or just a pause before a deeper 12% decline?

Solana Price Holds Support as Breakdown Pattern Nears Completion

On the 8-hour chart, Solana's price is close to completing a head-and-shoulders pattern. This is a bearish structure that typically triggers a decline when support is broken. The neckline is around US$84.36. The price recently tested this level and formed a long lower wick. This wick indicates buyers stepping in right at the support area.

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So, there is demand. But its strength is not yet sufficient.

The pattern remains active. As long as Solana stays below the resistance at the right shoulder, the setup remains bearish. The risk is straightforward. If the neckline is truly broken, the pattern will be confirmed.

This opens up a potential nearly 12% decline from the current level. The market is at a critical point. Support is still holding for now, but the structure continues to show a downward tendency.

Exchange Flows Indicate Buying Still Present, but Starting to Weaken

To understand that wick, we need to look at exchange flows.

Exchange Net Position Change tracks whether tokens are moving into or out of exchanges. Outflows usually indicate accumulation. Since March 17, Solana has been consistently recording outflows. This suggests active buying. It supports the idea that demand is present at the neckline.

But there’s a problem. Buying pressure is starting to diminish. On March 22, net outflows were about 2.1 million SOL. By March 26, this decreased to around 1.3 million SOL, a 38% drop. This indicates that buying momentum is weakening.

So, although buyers are still around, they are less aggressive than before. This creates a weak support zone. Sufficient to slow down the decline, but not strong enough to reverse it entirely. That’s why SOL’s price support still holds, but the risk remains.

Short-term Holders Are Re-entering, but They Also Drive Selling

Now, the most critical part emerges. The most aggressive cluster—holders holding coins for one day to one week—are starting to reappear according to HODL Waves metrics. HODL Waves track how long investors hold their coins. The 1D to 1W group is the most responsive and quick-moving.

On March 22, this cluster held about 5.31% of the supply. By March 25, it dropped to 2.96% as they sold during the price dip. Now, they are back in.

Their share has risen again to around 3.9%. This means they are buying again, possibly expecting a short-term rebound. This is important because recently, this group has always been accurate in timing momentum. Their previous accumulation in the March 21-22 range occurred just before a brief rally from US$0.00 to US$91.

So, they might be predicting another rebound. But there’s a caveat.

This speculative money cluster is also quick to sell. They can’t tolerate uncertainty. They create momentum but often stop rallies early. So, their return supports a rebound, but not a sustained rise. This is where structure and behavior are interconnected.

Key Price Levels for Solana Determine the Final Outcome

The current Solana price chart is starting to reflect this setup.

On the 8-hour timeframe, Solana is forming a hidden bullish divergence. The price makes a higher low, while RSI makes a lower low. The Relative Strength Index measures buying strength. When RSI declines but the price stays steady, it indicates weakening selling pressure.

But this can only be confirmed if the next candle stays above the current low. If that happens, the rebound will be validated.

Afterward, Solana needs to reclaim some key levels:

US$85.69 as initial confirmation of strength
US$87.18 as trend continuation
US$93.48 to weaken the bearish structure
A clear move above US$93.48 would then start to break this pattern. Full invalidation occurs if the price rises above US$97.67, the pattern’s peak.

On the downside, the main trigger remains the same. If Solana drops below US$84.36, the neckline of the pattern is broken. This could push the price toward US$80.88 first, then down to US$74.37 as projected by the pattern. So, the setup is clear.

A rebound in Solana’s price could happen. The most aggressive group is already preparing for this. The RSI also supports it, and exchange flows still show buying activity.

But all of this is happening within a bearish structure, with the neckline at US$84.36 determining the next move. If buyers fail to regain higher levels, those pushing for a rebound could accelerate the breakdown. For this reason, the downside risk of about 12% remains.