The S&P 500 index is still struggling to make significant gains, partly because oil prices have failed to continue declining. The previous all-time high region between 6,300 and 6,000 remains a medium-term target. I plan to buy a large amount of SPY later this year as a long-term investment because, in the long run, my bet will support the U.S. economy. Looking at SPY, since the start of the 2022 market cycle, it has been trading within a range, with identifiable upper and lower bounds. The $600 region remains a key area of focus, but I will also prepare for the lower end of the range, which could see a +25% decline and would be a good zone for long-term holdings. We will evaluate each level locally based on the DXY, oil prices, and policy outlooks, but it’s important to at least plan for two zones and set alerts. Remember, rising oil prices could have a negative medium-term impact on the market, regardless of any short-term agreements between the U.S. and Iran.

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