$BTC Besides technical indicators, we are also facing energy prices not seen since the peak of the last macro cycle. Higher energy and transportation costs often lead to economic recession and put greater pressure on risk assets, which does not create a favorable environment for their prosperity or new highs. In my view, whether Iran and the US reach a short-term agreement is less important than the potential medium-term impact of rising oil prices on policy and markets. However, these periods also present good buying opportunities, but technical indicators need to align as well.

That said, as mentioned in our recent post, BTC has shown a short-term rebound from the low 60K level and recently dipped into our macro resistance zone of 80K-72K, which remains a lower high area. Below this zone, especially since it is still within a bear flag, the continuation of the macro downtrend remains possible. Remember, the macro structure is still weak, with lower lows on the 1M, 2W, and 1W charts, BTC trading below the weekly 21EMA and 50SMA, and no clear long-term buy signals. I believe that later this year, it is very likely that the price will move closer to our long-term DCA zone of (45K-28K).