It has been several weeks since the crypto market failed to make new lows, leading more people to believe that a macro bottom may have already arrived, especially considering BTC's recent relative strength compared to SPX or GOLD. It’s important to note that during macro bottoms, most people do not believe the bottom has already been reached. Most will lower their targets. If too many people believe the macro bottom has already arrived, then it’s unlikely to be real, just as most people did not believe BTC had peaked in October. The longer it takes for further declines, the more people believe the bottom has already been reached.

In a bear market, BTC spends very little time in sharp declines. Instead, most days show short-term upward trends, but these moves are usually weaker than the declines. That’s also why many people don’t realize we are in a bear market until it’s too late. As a result, prices continue to decline in the larger trend until a macro bottom is formed. Looking at the technical indicators we’ve been tracking over the past few weeks, there are currently no long-term buy signals flashing, but I expect they will appear at some point later this year.