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Today's Market Overview -- Waiting for Negotiations?
It seems all funding is currently watching for feedback from the Middle East..
Will they be able to negotiate, or not.. Do they want to negotiate, or are they just buying time?
The Marines that were deployed from Japan previously have now arrived near Sri Lanka.. It's only a matter of days before deployment is complete.. You could say the market trend will continue to be influenced by the negotiation process..
( why does this sound so familiar.. Last year around this time it was the same thing - tariff negotiations, followed by US-China negotiations... now Iran negotiations...)
Regardless, let's look at current data to see what plan it gives us for today..
Chart 1 Order Book
From the volatility in the Asian session, I've also noticed that spot market sentiment really isn't that strong today..
All operations are happening in a vacuum with minimal spot orders.. Essentially long and short contracts are playing against each other..
The two small spot orders at 70k and 71.5k can't break through.. It's turned into what weekends typically look like..
Still need to wait for the US session sentiment to determine direction..
Currently there's a small order wall above on contracts.. suppressing Asian session, and there are also signs of spoofing - after cancellations around 71k, there was suddenly a small wick down to 71.3k..
If the wall above continues to persist, considering deal completion and absorption if price moves up.. this would be a potential attention zone..
The real demand zone below is still below 68k..
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Chart 2 Funding Situation
Although the order book shows spot market is completely flat, from CVD perspective, there's actually quite a bit of spot accumulation happening quietly at 7W..
From yesterday's high to now, spot selling has been continuous on Binance, CVD -1000, normally this kind of situation leads to a steady decline.. But price has stayed above 7W.. There's passive demand..
Meanwhile under news impact, yesterday ETF resumed net inflows, though not large - around 200M
Just waiting to see if it can sustain today
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Chart 3
From current visible stop losses and liquidity.. the targets are clear both above and below the current consolidation zone..
No need to guess which side it goes to first from the middle..
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So today's plan is just to keep waiting..
For short opportunities above, watch for liquidity around 72k above yesterday's previous high - any potential false breakout pullback opportunities.. stop losses and liquidations..
If it breaks above, then watch around 73.5k
For long opportunities below, first watch below 70k for that large wave of long liquidations and stop losses for opportunities..
If it can't hold, then consider fully filling yesterday's gap on the way up..
Just monitoring around 68.7k -- the gap start overlapping with that wave of mysterious suspected liquidations -- want to see what actually happens here...