Muyu - March 24 Gold Morning Strategy

Yesterday's price action was quite choppy, displaying typical consolidation behavior. Gold prices initially plummeted rapidly to 4090, then quickly rebounded as funds returned to the market, currently oscillating around 4440. From a momentum perspective, this rebound is primarily a correction of the prior sharp decline rather than a trend reversal, which can easily mislead traders into thinking the market has resumed strength, but the overall structure hasn't truly turned bullish yet.

On the news front, the market's main trading narrative has shifted. On one hand, escalating US-Iran tensions bring risk-off sentiment and provide potential support for gold; on the other hand, rising oil prices boost inflation expectations, which further narrows the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts. With elevated interest rates persisting, gold's disadvantage as a non-yielding asset becomes increasingly apparent. This is also the key reason why positive news has been abundant recently but prices have declined rather than risen. Simply put, the core logic driving gold has switched from risk-off sentiment to interest rate expectations.

On the chart, the 4-hour level remains below the middle band with the Bollinger Bands opening downward, and the bearish pattern remains intact. The 1-hour chart has transitioned from one-sided decline to consolidation and is in a recovery phase; the 15-minute chart shows higher lows but faces multiple resistance on rallies, displaying a typical weak consolidation structure. Overall, current price action remains in a range-bound consolidation within the recovery process and is not the starting point of a new uptrend.

Key Levels:
Resistance: 4510–4520
Support: 4400, 4350, 4300