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Macro + Derivatives: Risk-Averse Sentiment Maxed Out, Bearish Sentiment Reaches Phase-High
External macro environment completely suppressing risk assets, becoming the biggest stumbling block for BTC's rise: Middle East geopolitical conflicts continuing to intensify, international oil prices climbing steadily, directly pushing up U.S. inflation expectations; CME rate instruments showing that market probability of Fed rate hike in April surged directly from 0% to 12%, rate hike expectations warming up, forming lethal suppression on high-risk assets like crypto.
Options market bearish sentiment exploding, put/call open interest ratio climbing to 0.77, creating a new high since June 2021! Large numbers of traders frantically buying put options for downside protection, sufficiently illustrating how intense institutional and large traders' concerns about subsequent declines are.