This week (the week starting March 16, 2026), the trends in precious metals (primarily gold and silver) and crude oil are dominated by Middle East geopolitical conflicts (particularly U.S.-Iran tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz), presenting an overall characteristic of **high volatility and risk premium-driven movements**.

### Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)
The strongest market driver at present is serious obstruction in Strait of Hormuz traffic (approximately 1/5 of global oil trade channels), compounded by attacks on some Middle Eastern oil production facilities, leading to substantial supply-side disruption. The IEA mentions that global supply could plummet by approximately 8 million barrels/day in March.

- **Short-term expectation**(this week through early next week):**Biased toward strong oscillation, potentially continuing to surge higher**.
Brent is currently experiencing severe fluctuations around 92-103 USD (approaching/exceeding 120 USD in some periods before retreating), with WTI also above 90-100 USD.
Bull-side consensus suggests that if disruptions persist for 2-4 weeks, there's still upside potential, with some institutions seeing extreme scenarios of 130-150 USD (war premium). Prediction markets (such as Polymarket) show high probability of maintaining above 100 USD this week.
However, on the other hand, the IEA/OPEC+ may coordinate strategic reserve releases (expectations of historically largest-scale releases), global economic slowdown concerns, and demand destruction from elevated inflation will also bring periodic pullback pressure.

- **Likely this week**: High-level turbulence with greater probability of surge-then-pullback. Maintaining above 100 USD appears more likely, but avoid chasing extreme highs.

### Precious Metals (Gold & Silver)
Gold is currently experiencing severe oscillations in the 5000-5200 USD/ounce range (international spot approximately 5050-5150 nearby, Shanghai Gold main contract approximately 1140-1150 yuan/gram equivalent), with silver somewhat weaker (international approximately 80-90 USD nearby, Shanghai Silver around 2.1-2.2 ten-thousand nearby).

- **Main Contradiction**:
- **Bearish factors** → Soaring oil prices → Uncontrolled inflation expectations → Fed rate cut expectations substantially retreat (even turning hawkish) → USD strength + Treasury yields rise → Pressure on non-yielding assets gold and silver.
- **Bullish factors** → Geopolitical risk-off demand (Middle East conflict escalation, deglobalization, de-dollarization) + Continued central bank gold purchases (robust ETF inflows in February) → Providing downside support.

- **Short-term expectation**(this week):**Oscillation biased toward weakness, but limited downside space**.
Many analysts believe gold will likely test 5000-5030 USD support this week (effective breakdown to see 4900-4950), with resistance above at 5200-5300.
If crude oil continues to surge and the Fed's March policy meeting (March 17-18) turns more hawkish, gold may probe lower; conversely, if geopolitical signals ease or USD pulls back temporarily, gold will quickly rebound toward 5250-5400.
Silver is weaker than gold, affected by industrial demand concerns and gold correlation, exhibiting higher volatility with tendency for larger pullbacks.

### One-sentence Summary (personal inclination)
- **Crude Oil**: This week will likely maintain high-level oscillation, not ruling out further surges above 110 USD (but chasing highs carries extreme risk).
- **Precious Metals**: Biased toward oscillation and weakness mainly, with gold focusing on whether it can hold the 5000 level, silver likely to be more weak.
The core variable remains the **next round of headlines on Middle East situation** (ceasefire negotiations? Larger-scale strikes? Scale of reserve releases?), any directional breakthrough will trigger one-way action.

In this environment of extreme geopolitical + inflation + monetary policy triple resonance, volatility will be very substantial. I recommend light positions or sidelined approach primarily—don't easily take large directional bets. If you want to discuss specific products or price levels further, feel free to ask.