0311 Bitcoin Daily Report#原油价格回落

The start of this week has been relatively positive. After two consecutive days of rebound, short-term price movement has entered a consolidation phase. Currently, trading is around $70,000. Prior to this, due to rising tensions in the energy markets, Bitcoin briefly dropped to the $65,000 range. Now, it has regained the $70,000 level, reflecting a renewed buying interest in the short term.

Data shows that recent days have seen a significant increase in the selling of put options, indicating that traders are willing to take on downside risk in exchange for premium income. This behavior aligns with market expectations of a price rebound to around $80,000 between June and September. Currently, Bitcoin skew has increased, which also suggests traders are gradually reducing protective measures, in other words, hedging is decreasing, market sentiment is stable, and prices are stabilizing.

Technical Outlook: Despite the recent rebound, the bullish price trend is still insufficient to negate the dominant downward trendline that has persisted for several months. Structurally, the most important technical pattern remains a downtrend, and this rebound is not enough to confirm a shift in market structure toward a sustained upward trend. Key price levels: the $73,500 zone coincides with the 50-period moving average. If the price continues to stay above this level, it may further strengthen buying interest and potentially end the neutral consolidation pattern since February; immediate resistance is at $70,000. If the price cannot break free from this zone for an extended period, a prolonged sideways consolidation may gradually form; the $63,900 zone corresponds to recent lows and is the most critical support line. If the price continues to break below this level, a larger-scale downward trend could reassert dominance in the coming weeks.