Global Coffee Market Under Pressure: Robusta Coffee Falls to Multi-Month Low Amid Brazilian Surplus

Monday’s trading session reflected mounting headwinds facing the global coffee market. May arabica futures fell 2.68% while May robusta coffee declined 0.86%, with the latter touching a 6.5-month low. The primary catalyst has been mounting evidence of a substantial coffee harvest coming from Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, which is reshaping the supply-demand balance for both arabica and robusta varieties.

Brazil’s Record Harvest Weighs on Robusta Coffee and Arabica Prices

On February 5, Conab, Brazil’s official crop forecasting agency, delivered projections that sent shockwaves through commodity markets. The agency forecast that Brazil’s 2026 coffee output will reach a record 66.2 million bags, representing a 17.2% year-over-year increase. Breaking this down by variety, arabica production is projected to climb 23.2% y/y to 44.1 million bags, while robusta coffee output is expected to rise 6.3% y/y to 22.1 million bags.

Beyond production forecasts, favorable weather patterns have bolstered the outlook. During the week ended February 13, Minas Gerais—Brazil’s largest arabica-growing region—received 62.8 mm of rainfall, equating to 138% of the historical average according to Somar Meteorologia. This moisture availability supports optimal growing conditions for both arabica and robusta varieties heading into the harvest season.

Vietnam’s Surging Exports Add to Downward Pressure on Robusta Coffee

Vietnam’s role as the world’s dominant robusta coffee producer makes its export dynamics particularly significant. On February 6, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that January coffee exports surged 38.3% y/y to 198,000 metric tons. The broader picture shows Vietnam’s 2025 coffee shipments jumped 17.5% y/y to 1.58 million metric tons, with 2025/26 production projected to climb 6% y/y to 1.76 million metric tons—a 4-year high representing 29.4 million bags.

This export momentum underscores the global robusta coffee supply picture. The increased availability from Vietnam, combined with Brazil’s anticipated surplus, creates substantial downward pressure on robusta coffee pricing in the near term.

Coffee Inventory Recovery Signals Easing Market Tightness

A critical technical factor has been the recovery in ICE-monitored coffee reserves. Arabica inventories, which had fallen to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags on November 18, rebounded to 461,829 bags by January 7—a 3.75-month high. Similarly, robusta coffee inventories dropped to a 14-month low of 4,012 lots on December 10 before recovering to a 2.75-month high of 4,662 lots on January 26. This inventory rebuilding typically weighs on commodity prices by reducing supply urgency.

Mixed Signals from Producer Nations

While supply-side factors dominated the negative sentiment, some cross-currents emerged. Brazil reported on February 5 that January coffee exports fell 42.4% y/y to 141,000 metric tons, suggesting near-term shipment constraints. Additionally, Colombia’s coffee sector showed weakness, with the National Federation of Coffee Growers reporting that January production declined 34% y/y to 893,000 bags. As the world’s second-largest arabica producer, Colombia’s output challenges provided modest support to arabica prices, though this was insufficient to offset broader market pressures on robusta coffee and the commodity complex.

Global Production Outlook Shapes Long-Term Trajectory

The International Coffee Organization reported in November that global coffee exports for the October-September marketing year declined marginally by 0.3% y/y to 138.658 million bags. However, looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projected on December 18 that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase 2.0% y/y to a record 178.848 million bags. The USDA anticipated arabica production will decrease 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta coffee output will expand 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

For Brazil specifically, the USDA forecasted 2025/26 production at 63 million bags (down 3.1% y/y), while Vietnam’s 2025/26 robusta coffee crop is projected to reach 30.8 million bags, up 6.2% y/y to a 4-year high. Looking at global ending stocks for 2025/26, the USDA expects reserves to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from the prior year’s 21.307 million bags.

The convergence of these factors—record Brazilian harvests, surging Vietnamese robusta coffee exports, recovering inventory levels, and strong global production growth—has created a bearish backdrop for coffee prices across both arabica and robusta varieties. Market participants should monitor production progress during the Brazilian and Vietnamese seasons, as any significant deviations from current forecasts could alter the supply-demand equation and provide support to depressed robusta coffee valuations.