#贵金原油价格飙升

How far can crude oil and precious metals still rise? My core view is: in the short term, focus on sentiment; in the medium term, watch the "danger zone"; in the long term, expect recession.

1. Gold (XAU): A New Test for the Safe Haven
Over the weekend, the influx of funds into gold is an obvious logic. With Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, this is not just a conflict but a direct chokehold on the global energy lifeline.
· How far can it go? I believe that as long as the "blockade" persists, gold's safe-haven properties will be amplified. In the next 48 hours, if there are no signs of de-escalation, gold prices are likely to hit a new all-time high.
· Key levels: From the chart, the first strong resistance above is at $5380-5400. If it can hold above $5400, the next target is the extreme zone of $5500-5600. For a pullback, $5300 is today’s key support level; as long as it doesn’t break, the strength remains.
2. Crude Oil (WTI, Brent): The Choked Throat
This is the engine driving the current market. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-third of global maritime oil trade. A shutdown here would completely change the supply logic of oil.
· How far can it go? Barclays predicts Brent could test $100. If the conflict expands to Iran’s oil facilities or triggers a chain reaction among Gulf countries, oil prices could spiral out of control.
· Key levels: Once WTI crude oil breaks and stabilizes above $80, the upside space will be fully opened, directly targeting $85-90. Strong support on the downside is around $72-73, but given the current fundamentals, the likelihood of a deep correction is decreasing.