Today, it was confirmed that Khamenei has died, and the market has rebounded as a result.

The 78 additional Solana spot holdings were sold at 88.
The rest will continue to be held until 100-120.
At this point, it’s similar to the situation with Maduro back then. The next question is: where does this conflict go from here?
Will the US stop, or will Iran continue to retaliate (even if a new leader takes over)?
Iran is usually considered an authoritarian country, but the situation is complex (with higher organizational levels/richer structures). Compared to Maduro relying on personal dictatorship, Iran has a systematic ruling collective called the “Clergy Group.”
Khamenei (“The Grand Ayatollah”) has died, and there are other power groups like ordinary Ayatollahs, the Guardian Council, and the Expert Council. If the goal is to completely remove the Clergy Group from Iran, only a military invasion and occupation of the entire country would suffice.
This also explains why the Revolutionary Guards still talk about revenge. The Guards uphold the narrative of the Islamic Revolution and the theocratic ruling model; Khamenei’s death does not mean the collapse of the regime.
Meanwhile, Trump has called on the Iranian people to rise up and change the government, rather than actively intervening to dismantle the theocratic system. I believe the final outcome will lean toward no regime change (like Venezuela—where only one leader is missing).
Therefore, how the current Iranian ruling group acts and responds is the key to the next market move.
We don’t know what they are thinking. It’s possible that some may back down, negotiate with the US, and give up nuclear weapons. It’s also possible that more radical elements will come forward, willing to go all out and fight the US to the end.
If Iran continues to retaliate or launches terror attacks in a fragmented manner, forcing the US to continue bombing Iran or even escalate to full-scale land warfare, I believe the market will further decline, ultimately testing below 60,000.
If the new leadership can act rationally and control the Revolutionary Guards’ independent actions, then 63,200 could confirm the bottom, and we could head toward 74,700 next week.
The next step depends on how Iran’s leadership responds.
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