History of Opportunity Search: When Bitcoin's RSI drops below 30, what should investors look into?

The cryptocurrency market is currently in a filtering phase as Bitcoin has dropped nearly 50% from its peak in October 2025. Amidst the prevailing anxiety in the market, a rare technical indicator has appeared, opening up the biggest accumulation opportunity in years. History shows that these times are often when smart investors begin seeking good entry positions before the market recovers.

Rare Signal from the RSI: What Has Happened?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator used to measure the speed and change of price movements. When RSI exceeds 70, an asset is considered overbought; when it drops below 30, it is oversold. According to data from checkonchain, this is only the third time in Bitcoin’s entire history that the 14-day RSI has fallen below 30. The previous two instances occurred in January 2015 and December 2018 — both coinciding with the bottom of the most severe bear cycles. This indicates that selling pressure in the market is exhausted, signaling a potential recovery phase.

Historical Lessons: What Should Investors Know?

While an RSI below 30 is a warning sign of a market bottom, history also offers us an important lesson: the “wearing down” phase of extreme psychological stress often lasts longer than expected.

In 2015, after RSI hit 28, Bitcoin took up to 8 months to trade sideways around the $200 level before entering a rapid growth phase. Similarly, in 2018, a drop of RSI below 30 at around $3,500 led to three months of sideways accumulation.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $64,460 (down 1.62% in 24 hours), and historical data suggests the market may undergo a consolidation phase around $60,000 for the next few months. This is a period when the market filters out weak-handed investors through prolonged sideways movement, laying a solid foundation for the next rally.

Market Sentiment: When Should Investors Look for Opportunities?

Over the past 30 days, the Fear & Greed Index has consistently been stuck in the “Fear” or “Extreme Fear” zones — typical psychological states during sharp price declines. However, for experienced investors, this is precisely the time to seek attractive positions. When the crowd is fearful, it’s the moment to observe carefully.

A notable signal: Bitcoin has not been able to surpass the overbought RSI threshold (100) since December 2024, indicating that the bullish momentum has completely faded. Instead, smart money is quietly waiting at deep discount levels, ready to enter as market sentiment begins to shift. This reflects a reality: great opportunities are often found and seized by the most patient, not the most impulsive.

Crypto history shows that periods as deep as the current often lead to significant price explosions. Wise investors will use this time to develop long-term strategies, not just short-term trades. That is the lesson history has repeatedly taught us.