If this escalates, most retail traders will get wiped. US and Israel vs Iran is not just another operation. If this becomes a full middle east prolonged conflict, things will get historical Here is the chain reaction: Oil spikes → inflation risk explodes. Inflation rises → yields surge. Yields surge → liquidity gets drained. Liquidity drains → risk gets liquidated. What goes down first? Overvalued tech. Small caps. Speculative garbage. And yes, crypto. Bitcoin does not crash because it is broken. It crashes because in stress events it trades like high liquidity. When funds need cash, they do not ask what they love. They sell what they can. Around 20 percent of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. If that artery gets hit, oil rips and the entire macro regime shifts in hours. This is not the same as symbolic strikes like last time. If this drags for days, you will see forced selling. Margin calls. Volatility spikes. Panic and bankruptcy Manage risk. Stay liquid. Survive first. Opportunity comes after the blood.
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Lions_Lionish
· 8h ago
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If this escalates, most retail traders will get wiped.
US and Israel vs Iran is not just another operation.
If this becomes a full middle east prolonged conflict, things will get historical
Here is the chain reaction:
Oil spikes → inflation risk explodes.
Inflation rises → yields surge.
Yields surge → liquidity gets drained.
Liquidity drains → risk gets liquidated.
What goes down first?
Overvalued tech.
Small caps.
Speculative garbage.
And yes, crypto.
Bitcoin does not crash because it is broken.
It crashes because in stress events it trades like high liquidity.
When funds need cash, they do not ask what they love.
They sell what they can.
Around 20 percent of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
If that artery gets hit, oil rips and the entire macro regime shifts in hours.
This is not the same as symbolic strikes like last time.
If this drags for days, you will see forced selling.
Margin calls.
Volatility spikes.
Panic and bankruptcy
Manage risk.
Stay liquid.
Survive first.
Opportunity comes after the blood.