#马年开工第一帖 Bitcoin continues to decline, with weak rebounds, and the trend has shifted into a downward channel.

Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis:

Bitcoin 3-Day Chart Analysis
Key Levels: Currently, the price has yet to break above the 0.5 level (around 70,600), with each rebound weakening progressively.
Trend Reversal: The structure has shifted from an uptrend to a downtrend, with the price breaking below the early upward support path, and during rebounds, the 0.5 level has changed from support to resistance.
Downside Target: The next reasonable move is to retest the 0.618 level (around 57,600), which is a typical bull-bear dividing line; the market usually tests this level to confirm support.
Volume-Price Relationship: Currently, it’s a “decline with short-term upward movement,” with selling pressure dominating; the upward moves below 0.5 are more about bearish traders slowing down rather than bullish reversals.

4-Hour Chart: Weak Rebound Confirmation
Rebound Resistance:
Although there is a technical rebound at the 0.786 level, it immediately encounters resistance and falls back after touching the 0.618 level, indicating a weak rebound within a bearish trend.
Resistance Confirmation: The 0.618 level has officially shifted from support to resistance. If the price cannot effectively hold above 0.618, it is highly likely to continue downward toward the previous low around 598.
Volume-Price Behavior: A typical “volume increases during declines and decreases during rises,” indicating that the market control is fully in the hands of the bears.