Cryptocurrency Market In-Depth Analysis Report: Extreme Panic and Survival Strategies Amid Macro Storms

On the morning of February 25, 2026, the cryptocurrency market continued its weak oscillation pattern, with Bitcoin trading around $64,000, down approximately 0.78% over 24 hours, nearly 50% off its October 2025 all-time high. Market sentiment has plummeted to the freezing point, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 6, indicating extreme panic. The recent decline was triggered by multiple macroeconomic negative factors resonating simultaneously, including Trump's tariff policy escalation, US-Iran geopolitical risks, and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, compounded by ongoing institutional fund outflows and margin liquidations, leading to a systemic adjustment phase. In the short term, the market is likely to continue its weak oscillation, and investors should adopt a defensive stance, strictly controlling risks.

1. Market Overview: Total Collapse and Extreme Panic

As of 07:55 on February 25, Bitcoin was quoted at $64,064.34, with a 24-hour high of $65,026.75 and a low of $62,510.28, with a daily volatility exceeding 5%. Ethereum's price stood at $1,857.30, down 0.14% over 24 hours. The market showed a broad decline, with the total crypto market cap evaporating over $48 billion (about 330 billion yuan) in the past 24 hours. Over 114,000 traders faced liquidation, totaling $460 million, with over 90% of these positions being long positions. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index dropped to 6, the lowest since the beginning of 2026, indicating that market panic is approaching historical extremes.

2. Analysis of Driving Factors: Resonance of Macro “Perfect Storm” and Internal Fragility

Macro Black Swan Events: Trump announced an immediate increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, intensifying fears of global trade friction. Funds are withdrawing from risk assets and shifting into traditional safe havens like gold, short-term narratives of Bitcoin as “digital gold” are collapsing.

Escalation of Geopolitical Risks: Tensions between the US and Iran continue to escalate. Trump stated he would decide within “about 10 days” whether to take military action against Iran, further boosting safe-haven demand.

Federal Reserve Tightening: The Fed nominated hawkish figure Kevin Wirth as the new chair, coupled with a rebound in inflation data, leading to a significant downward revision of rate cut expectations. The high-interest-rate environment increases the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin.

Institutional Fund Outflows: The US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced net outflows for four consecutive months, totaling over $4 billion. Leading global mining company Bit Deer has liquidated its holdings of 1,133 Bitcoins, becoming the first publicly listed miner to disclose “zero Bitcoin holdings.”

Market Structural Fragility: The current crypto market generally features extremely high leverage ratios of 50-125x, with price declines triggering chain reactions of liquidations, forming a “downward spiral—liquidation—further decline” death spiral.

3. Technical Analysis: Key Support Levels Under Severe Test

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is in a clear daily-level downtrend channel:

Moving Averages: Price has broken below all short-term moving averages, which are arranged in a full bearish alignment, with short-term averages continuously suppressing the price.

Key Price Levels: The core resistance zone is between $69,000 and $70,000 (resonance of the upper boundary of the downtrend channel and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement); the key support level is at the $60,000 mark. If this is broken effectively, the next strong support zone will shift down to $54,000–$55,000.

Indicator Signals: The daily MACD lines remain below zero, with bearish momentum not significantly waning; the KDJ indicator has entered oversold territory but has not yet shown a bullish crossover.

Bollinger Bands: Price is trading below the middle band ($65,887.49) and approaching the lower band ($62,087.41), indicating a weak oscillation phase.

4. Market Outlook: Probabilistic Scenario Analysis

Based on fundamental and technical analysis, the future market can be divided into three scenarios:

Neutral Scenario (about 60% probability): Bitcoin consolidates in the $58,500–$65,000 range, digesting previous selling pressure, with market sentiment gradually recovering, mainly forming a bottoming process.

Pessimistic Scenario (about 30% probability): Bitcoin effectively breaks below the $58,500 key support, triggering a new round of panic selling, with prices further declining to the $54,000–$55,000 range, and potentially testing the $50,000 round number in extreme cases.

Optimistic Scenario (about 10% probability): Bitcoin stabilizes around $60,000, with a volume breakout above $70,000 resistance, initiating a rebound trend. This scenario requires a shift in Fed monetary policy, significant inflows into ETFs, and favorable regulatory developments as multiple catalysts.

5. Layered Trading Strategies: Prioritize Defense, Strict Discipline

1. Spot Investors Strategy

Conservative (Recommended): Wait and see. Do not blindly “bottom fish” until clear signs of stabilization appear (such as daily volume-driven bullish candles, Fear and Greed Index rising above 20, Coinbase premium turning positive). Keep cash on hand and wait for better entry points.

Aggressive: If confident in Bitcoin’s long-term value, place small, light, staggered buy orders in the $60,000–$63,000 range. Use a pyramid-building approach: no more than 30% of the planned total position for the first order; if the price drops near $60,000, add another 30%; in extreme cases below $58,000, allocate the remaining 40%.

2. Futures/Short-term Trading Strategies

Shorting Opportunities: Watch for resistance signals in the $65,800–$66,200 zone (short-term resistance). If the price rebounds to this zone and fails to break through, consider small short positions with strict stop-loss above $66,500.

Long Opportunities: Only suitable for experienced traders to test longs at key support levels. If the price falls back to $63,000–$63,500 and shows signs of stabilization on a 15-minute chart (such as long lower shadows, volume-price divergence), consider very small short-term long positions to attempt a rebound, with stops below $62,500.

Strict Discipline: Leverage should be controlled within 3x, with individual position risk not exceeding 2% of capital. All trades must have pre-set stop-loss levels; avoid fighting against the trend or averaging down to lower costs.

3. Asset Allocation Framework Recommendations

Conservative: Maintain a high proportion of cash or stablecoins (40–50%), allocate 20–30% to gold as a hedge, and limit crypto holdings to 20–30%, exclusively in Bitcoin.

Aggressive: Increase crypto asset allocation to 50–60%, but strictly set overall drawdown stop-loss lines (e.g., -15%), and keep at least 20% in cash to cope with extreme market conditions.

6. Key Monitoring Indicators and Risk Alerts

Investors should closely monitor the following indicators to identify market turning points:

Sentiment Indicators: Fear and Greed Index rising above 20.

Fund Flows: Coinbase premium returning to positive (indicating institutional buying in the US), Bitcoin ETF fund flows turning positive and continuing for over 3 days.

Technical Signals: Bitcoin breaking above $66,000 with volume on daily charts and stabilizing, MACD showing bullish divergence.

Macro Events: Speeches by Federal Reserve officials, US PPI and initial jobless claims data, US-Iran developments, and subsequent policy moves by Trump regarding tariffs.

Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, currently in extreme panic sentiment, with increased liquidation risks due to leverage. Investors should make cautious decisions based on their risk tolerance, avoid high leverage, and strictly control positions. Extreme market emotions often create contrarian investment opportunities, but precise bottom-fishing is very challenging. Patience and waiting for clear stabilization signals are more prudent. In crypto markets, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits.

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