Is the AI cycle still the trend in the US stock market? Which news makes you want to jump in?

Recent news flows are like a runaway horse: AI funding hits new highs, US stock indices approach new highs, a tech giant reports explosive earnings... each one seems to shout: "Go for it!"
The question is, are you jumping because of the cycle or just emotion?
The logic of the AI cycle lies in the productivity revolution—advancements in computing power, models, and applications layer by layer, with a big narrative and a long timeline. But valuations are already high, and even a slight fluctuation can cause high-level volatility.
The trend in the US stock market is more macro-focused: inflation data, interest rate expectations, employment reports. When one data point exceeds expectations, market sentiment immediately flips.
True macro traders don’t just jump at news; they ask: “What ‘trend variable’ has this news changed?” Is it a long-term structural shift or short-term sentiment?
The most tempting news to jump into is often the most dangerous. Because by the time you see it, the market has already digested half of it.
The smart approach is to treat news as a signal, not a command. Confirm the trend before increasing positions, slow down during emotional peaks.
The first wave of good news in the Year of the Horse doesn’t necessarily come from a sensational headline, but from learning to distinguish “stories” from “cycles.” When others chase hot topics, you’re calculating risks; when others panic, you’re analyzing the structure.
This is the true temperament of a macro trader. #马年开工第一帖