Bitcoin and Ethereum, what stage are they really in right now?

"Is the bull market about to start again?"
Let me give you the conclusion directly: This is not the beginning of a bull market. It more resembles a "rebound after a sharp decline." The difference between the two is significant.
1. Let's look at a simple fact first:
Bitcoin has fallen from over 120,000 all the way down to around 60,000.
Ethereum has dropped from over 4,000 to around 2,000.
What does this indicate? It shows that the previous rally has ended. The trend has broken.
The current upward movement is just a rebound after a decline.
It's like someone falling and bouncing back up, but that doesn't mean they’ve started running.
2. Why does it seem like the recent rise is so strong? Because the previous drop was too severe.
After a crash, the market typically experiences three things:
1. Leverage liquidation
2. Panic selling
3. Some people start to buy the dip
As a result, prices may show: huge trading volume, rapid surges, and attractive technical indicators.
But note: good technical indicators ≠ a new trend starting.
During a downtrend, the most common pattern is a "rebound that looks very much like a bull market."
Many people get caught in this trap.
3. Where is Bitcoin really now?
We can simplify into three levels:
First level: around 60,000 — this is the lowest zone of this crash.
If it falls below this, the structure will worsen. This is the bottom line.
Second level: 68,000–74,000
This is the current rebound zone. Volatility here will be high. Gains can be sharp, and drops can be sharp too.
This zone is more suitable for short-term trading, not for heavy positions.
Third level: 76,000–80,000
This is a key resistance zone. Only if it re-establishes stability here can we start talking about "trend recovery."
If it can't break through, it’s just a rebound.
4. Ethereum is weaker
Ethereum's structure is slightly worse than Bitcoin's. It’s currently around 2,000.
If it can hold above 2,400 and stabilize, that would be a true recovery.
Otherwise, it’s still a weak rebound.
To put it simply: the market's main player remains Bitcoin, and Ethereum has not truly recovered yet.
5. What might happen in the next few weeks?
The bigger probability is not a rapid surge.
It’s more likely to be: rise, pullback, oscillate again, and test the bottom again.
Because we are not in a phase of full capital inflow now. It’s a "sentiment recovery phase."
A real bull market would have two characteristics:
1. The rise is sustained, not just a quick spike followed by a drop
2. The pullbacks become shallower, not sudden large drops
These two features have not appeared yet.
6. What should ordinary people do now?
There are two types of people.
First: conservative
Wait until it truly re-establishes above key resistance zones before participating.
Bitcoin stabilizes above 76,000–80,000.
Ethereum stabilizes above 2,400.
Advantages: safer
Disadvantage: buying at a higher price
But the win rate is much higher.
Second: those willing to accept volatility
Can participate with small positions during the big dips.
For example: small batches around 60,000–66,000 for Bitcoin.
But there’s a prerequisite: if it falls below 60,000 again, you must exit decisively. No hesitation.
7. The most dangerous behaviors now:
1. Going all-in at the first sign of a rise
2. Thinking "the bull market is back"
3. Not setting stop-losses
4. Emotional trading
The decay phase is the easiest time to be misled into thinking a bull market is here.
A true bull market is one where you don’t need to guess.
It will prove itself.
8. To sum up in one sentence:
This is not the start of a bull market.
It is the "recovery phase after a crash."
The core of this phase is not "making big money."
But rather: managing risk and waiting for the trend to become clear.
The market will never start just because you’re anxious.
It only starts when the structure is ready.
Right now, it’s not that time yet.