#我在Gate广场过新年 Structural Adjustment Under Macro Liquidity Game: Bitcoin Tests Key Support, Ethereum Continues Weakness

February 14, 2026, the cryptocurrency market shows a divergent trend under the dual pressures of the U.S. government shutdown risk and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Bitcoin fluctuates around the key psychological level of $67,000, with a slight 0.01% increase over 24 hours, while its total market capitalization drops below $2.3 trillion; Ethereum continues its weak trend, with prices around $1,944. Technical indicators show oversold signals but no clear signs of stabilization yet. The market is in a game of macro liquidity turning points versus endogenous growth momentum within the crypto ecosystem. Short-term, a defensive allocation strategy is recommended.

1. In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin
Price Performance and Key Levels
As of the evening of February 13, Bitcoin is quoted at $67,906, with a daily high above $68,000. This level is precisely at the lower boundary of a previous dense trading zone, holding significant technical importance. From a longer-term perspective, since the peak in December 2025, Bitcoin has retraced nearly 30%, with current prices giving back most of the gains from the bull run that started in August 2024.

Macro Drivers
The core variable today is the sharp increase in the risk of a U.S. government shutdown. Market prediction platform Polymarket shows the probability of a federal shutdown before midnight on February 14 spiked to 97%, then fell back to 29%, while Kalshi’s platform indicates an 88% high probability. This uncertainty directly impacts risk asset pricing, with cryptocurrencies, as highly volatile assets, being the most affected.
It’s worth noting that this shutdown risk centers on the expiration of Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding. If no alternative appropriations are agreed upon, some operations of the department could be interrupted.
Looking back at the longest shutdown cycle from October to November 2025 (43 days), risk assets experienced significant liquidity tightening and volatility spikes during that period.

Technical Analysis
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin found temporary support near $60,000, preventing panic selling from continuing, but the rebound is weak, and bullish confidence is clearly lacking. The daily chart shows prices have broken below all major moving averages, forming a typical bearish alignment. Volume during recent declines has not effectively contracted, indicating clear signs of loosening chips.

Key Support Levels: $65,000 (previous low-density zone), $60,000 (psychological level and key wave position)
Key Resistance Levels: $70,000 (short-term downtrend line), $72,000 (20-day moving average)

2. In-Depth Analysis of Ethereum
Price Performance and Relative Weakness
Ethereum is currently quoted around $1,944, down 1.05% over 24 hours, with a total decline of 35.64% over the past 22 trading days, significantly underperforming Bitcoin. This "beta amplification" characteristic is especially evident during market corrections, reflecting ETH’s elasticity as a risk asset.

Deteriorating Technical Signals
Technically, Ethereum has broken below the lower boundary of its medium-term downtrend channel, a move that typically indicates an accelerated downside risk. The RSI indicator is below 30, entering oversold territory, but historical experience shows that in strong trend markets, oversold conditions can persist for a long time. More severely, the chart shows no effective support levels, suggesting further downside potential.
On-chain data shows DeFi lock-up volumes remain high for the year, but the growth rate of stablecoin supply has slowed. The positive expectations for the Pectra upgrade (expected to launch its testnet in June 2025) are fully priced in, making it difficult to support short-term prices.
In terms of ecosystem competition, Ethereum’s dominant position in Layer 1 faces pressure from high-performance chains like Solana, with diminishing transaction fee advantages and ongoing user experience bottlenecks.
ETF fund flow data indicates institutional investors prefer Bitcoin’s "digital gold" narrative, with relatively weak demand for ETH allocation.

3. Market Sentiment and Capital Flows
Fear and Greed Index
The current market sentiment indicator stands at 26 (fear), significantly lower than the previous extreme greed levels, but not yet in the panic zone (usually below 20). This suggests the market may still be in a mid-phase correction rather than at an end.

ETF and Institutional Dynamics
Over the past five weeks, spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows totaled $6.63 billion, with BlackRock’s crypto investment portfolio rising from $54.77 billion at the start of the year to $102.09 billion. This data indicates that despite volatile prices, institutional demand remains resilient, with long-term funds continuing to accumulate on dips.

4. Operational Strategy Recommendations
Bitcoin (BTC)
Short-term (1-2 weeks): Wait and see, look for clearer direction. If the price breaks below $65,000, consider reducing positions to below 30%; if volume breaks above $70,000, consider modestly increasing positions back to 50%.
Medium-term (1-3 months): Maintain core holdings, viewing the $60,000–$65,000 range as a strategic accumulation zone. Use dollar-cost averaging to smooth entry points and avoid heavy single-position bets.

Ethereum (ETH) is currently not recommended for bottom-fishing on the left side. The technical breakdown combined with macro deterioration suggests waiting for clear stabilization signals on the daily chart (such as increased volume on bullish candles or RSI bullish divergence) before considering entry.
Short-term traders can look for oversold rebound opportunities in the $1,800–$1,900 range, but must set strict stop-loss levels.
Asset Allocation Framework
It is recommended to increase gold allocation to 35-40%, maintain Bitcoin at 30-35% core position, reduce Ethereum to 10-15%, and keep 15-20% in cash or stablecoins to hedge volatility. This allocation preserves exposure to long-term crypto growth while hedging macro risks with precious metals.

5. Risk Warnings
1. Policy Risks: The Fed’s adjustment of interest rate control mechanisms (such as canceling the SRP limit) may temporarily increase liquidity but could also lead to a re-pricing of inflation expectations.
2. Liquidity Risks: If a U.S. government shutdown occurs, liquidity in traditional financial markets and crypto markets could contract simultaneously.
3. Technical Risks: Delays or technical failures in Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade could heighten concerns about its competitiveness.

Conclusion:
The market is undergoing a paradigm shift from "liquidity-driven" to "fundamentals-driven," with short-term pain unavoidable.
Investors should maintain strategic resolve, avoid making irrational decisions during emotional lows, and strictly manage risk positions to prepare for the next cycle.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; please make decisions cautiously according to your risk tolerance.