Before ETH. Don't be fooled by the false rebound; this wave is only short and not much.

Family gathering with everyone around the table snacking and chatting about everyday life. Cousins and siblings compare education, husbands, and stability. My phone screen shows the market, and with a quick glance, I know: the market is like life, don’t just trust the surface shine, look at the trend and the underlying cards.

Overnight US stocks plummeted, liquidity tightened directly, and all cryptocurrencies weakened. ETH already broke through the key level early on. Short-term clear bearish signal!

Now just wait for tonight’s US CPI data to exceed expectations. The dollar and US bond yields will soar, and ETH will be pushed down even harder.

Technical analysis needs no elaboration. Daily candles are all red and sluggish, four-hour rebounds lack volume. Weak rebounds are just opportunities for bears to attack.

At the dinner table, there’s more interesting stuff: my younger cousin, who just finished grad school, is stubbornly pursuing a PhD, playing it safe step by step; my pretty older cousin married a good husband and is lying flat, living her life; I, who don’t study much, still survive well through trading.

In this market: it looks like a tempting false breakout, a quick rally giving you hope, but it’s unstable. It quickly crashes to sweep liquidity. The major downtrend line is pressing down hard. All rebounds are traps, targeting retail traders trying to catch the bottom.

Don’t fight the trend. Tonight’s strategy is straightforward:
✅ Direction: Short, only a small short, rebounds are just giving away heads.

✅ Entry point: 1950-1970, staggered shorting. “This is the four-hour rebound resistance zone, the top and bottom reversal point with no volume, the most comfortable entry for bears. Don’t chase shorts; wait for a rebound to short again.”

✅ Defensive line: above 1995. “Breaking through here indicates a false breakout turning into a real breakout. Bear structure invalidates. Stop-loss and exit without holding the position.”

✅ Hunting target: first watch the 1900 level, a break below directly targets 1800. “Daily downtrend channel is complete, liquidity sweep target, enough space for a wave down.”

Finally, a heartfelt message: the core of trading isn’t how much you make, but whether you survive. The market is here every day. If your capital is gone, it’s really gone. Those who understand, let’s have a little dinner tonight.