【$AR Signal】No Position | Weak Rebound in Downtrend

$AR Is experiencing a weak rebound within a long-term downtrend, with the price firmly suppressed below EMA20 (1.8785), and the structure remains bearish.

🎯 Direction: No Position

Market Analysis: The 4H chart shows consecutive bearish candles. Although the latest candlestick has a lower shadow, the closing price is still below the opening price, indicating continued selling pressure. The buy/sell ratio remains below 0.5, suggesting strong market selling intent.

Logical Core: The price has broken below all key moving averages. RSI (21.07) has entered the oversold zone, but in a downtrend, oversold conditions may persist. Open interest (OI) remains stable rather than decreasing, combined with a negative funding rate (-0.0171%), indicating this is not a short squeeze but a market dominated by bears.

Depth data shows that the ask wall above 1.724 is very thin, while the bid side below is heavily stacked. This looks more like bears setting a liquidity trap below a key resistance level rather than genuine demand support. The rebound lacks volume, indicating a continuation of the downtrend.

Risk Control Perspective: Currently, there are no clear bullish signals on the right side. Conditions for shorting are also not met (funding rate not extremely positive, OI not decreasing). The best strategy is to wait for the price to rebound near EMA20, observe whether the funding rate turns positive with a declining OI at the top, or wait for a volume breakout above EMA20 with a steady hold, which could signal a trend reversal.

Trade 👇 $AR

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