Tonight's Non-Farm Payroll Data Incoming:

1. Data Delays and Major Revisions
This non-farm payroll report has been delayed due to the government shutdown and includes the 2025 non-farm employment benchmark revision. Preliminary estimates suggest that non-farm employment growth from April 2024 to March 2025 will be revised downward by 911,000 jobs. This will fundamentally alter the true picture of the U.S. labor market and is the biggest highlight of this data release.

2. Market Expectations Diverge

- Mainstream Expectation: Non-farm jobs added of 70,000, unemployment rate steady at 4.4%, wage growth slowing.
- Institutional Divergence: Goldman Sachs and other institutions are more pessimistic, expecting only 45,000 new jobs, indicating concerns about a cooling labor market.

3. Impact on Federal Reserve Policy and the Cryptocurrency Market

- Data Exceeds Expectations: Non-farm > 70,000, unemployment rate declines → Reinforces expectations of a soft landing, reduces the likelihood of a March rate cut, dollar strengthens, cryptocurrencies face short-term pressure.
- Data Below Expectations: Non-farm < 50,000, wages surpass expectations → Sparks concerns about stagflation, urgency to cut rates increases, dollar weakens, cryptocurrencies may benefit from easing expectations.
- Data Meets Expectations: Market continues to price in rate cuts, crypto market volatility remains limited, focus on details of the benchmark revision.

4. Key Variable: Final Value of the Non-Farm Benchmark Revision

This report will publish the final value of the 2025 non-farm employment benchmark change. Preliminary estimates suggest that non-farm employment growth from April 2024 to March 2025 will be revised downward by 911,000 jobs.

- Impact: This revision will fundamentally alter the true picture of the U.S. labor market. If the downward revision exceeds expectations, it will significantly strengthen the Fed's urgency to cut rates, providing medium- to long-term support for the crypto market.