Using a Complete Historical Chart to View BTC: What Does "Downward Completion State" Mean?

Many people ask:
When will BTC finish falling? How low will it go?
If you want a "precise number," you're basically gambling.
But if you're willing to use a more reliable method—looking at the full historical chart (weekly + logarithmic scale)—you'll find:
Every time a bear market ends in history, it's not just about "dropping to a certain point," but about a set of very specific "end patterns."
In other words:
The "downward completion state" is a set of signals, not a single price.
Below, I will break down this "end pattern" into 5 common features in the most straightforward way.
The 5 "end signals" you need to find in the complete historical chart:
1) The decline reaches a depth consistent with historical norms (not an infinite drop)
Each bear market from its all-time high (ATH) to near the end often shows a common retracement range:
Approximately from ATH retracement of -75% to -84%
(Note: This is a "normal zone," not a strict rule or exact number.)
Why look at this?
Because it indicates: the market has largely absorbed the bubble from the previous bull run.
If the decline hasn't yet reached this range, it usually means:
The downward move may not be in its "final stage" yet.
2) Panic acceleration ends, and "decline loses efficiency"
This point is especially important, more so than the "bottom price."
Bear markets generally have two phases:
First half: rapid and fierce decline
Consecutive long red candles, crashing like a landslide, everyone asking "Is it collapsing?"
Second half: possibly new lows, but the decline slows down
When bad news comes out, the price reaction becomes dull:
Previously, a piece of bad news could drop 10%, now maybe only 2-3%.
Sometimes, the drop is quickly bought back.
This is called:
"Decline losing efficiency"
Or: "Downward decay"
What does it mean?
It means:
The bears are still there, but making money gets harder; selling pressure is less effective than before.
This is often the core feature of the "final stage."
3) Around the 200-week moving average, there will be "tug-of-war"
In BTC's long-term history, many deep bear market tails show repeated tugging near an important level:
200-week moving average (200-week MA)
You need to understand:
The 200-week MA is not a "magic line"; its significance is:
It represents a very rough long-term average cost reference.
A common scene in the tail end is:
Price approaches it
Occasionally breaks through
Then pulls back
And consolidates sideways
The key point isn't "must hit exactly," but:
When the price moves near this area, the market begins to shift from "emotion-based pricing" to "cost-based logic."
In other words: some people start seriously accumulating from a long-term perspective**, but it doesn't mean an immediate reversal.
4) The sideways consolidation period becomes noticeably longer (time for space)
Many people think the "bottom" is a single point or moment.
But BTC's history shows: the real end of a bear market is often:
After a sharp drop, entering a sideways or slowly rising plateau lasting several months
And this period can be very torturous:
No more daily crashes
No big rallies
Just grinding, consuming, dragging out
Why do this?
Because the market needs to do one thing:
Gradually digest the "high-position buyers" from the previous bull run over time
(Handing over, cutting losses, becoming numb, leaving the market)
So the keyword in the tail end isn't "drop," but "grind."
5) On-chain valuation enters the "extreme undervaluation zone" (confirming "approaching the end")
The last signal is of a "confirmatory" nature, not a "bottom-fishing" one.
For example: MVRV Z-Score, an on-chain valuation indicator, often enters the undervaluation zone near the end of a bear market.
What is it used for?
Not for buying, but to ask:
Is the current situation close to "historically extremely cheap"?
If yes, it suggests: the decline may be nearing its "final phase."
If not, it indicates: the decline might still be in the middle.
It's "evidence reinforcement," not a "trading button."
When you apply these 5 signals to past bear markets, you'll find "highly repetitive patterns."
What did the 2013–2015 bear tail look like?
Typical rhythm:
First sharp decline
Then long sideways accumulation
Gradually losing momentum
Starting to recover slowly
This is the classic "time for space."
What about the 2017–2018 bear tail?
Many fear this cycle because its tail is very "grinding":
After the drop, no immediate reversal
Long sideways consolidation first
Repeated fake breakouts and fake rebounds during this period
Until the market is completely exhausted
On the complete historical chart, you'll clearly see:
The hardest part isn't the drop, but the grind.
What about the 2021–2022 bear tail?
This cycle also shows a familiar sequence:
Sharp decline → rebound hopes → further decline
After entering the deep bear zone,
Pulling near long-term costs
Sideways digestion
And then gradual recovery
It still conforms to that "end pattern."
To sum up "downward completion state" in one sentence:
BTC's downward completion state is never about "dropping to a specific number," but about:
① Decline reaching a depth consistent with historical norms
② Decline beginning to slow and lose efficiency
③ Tug-of-war near long-term cost levels
④ Significantly longer sideways consolidation
⑤ On-chain valuation providing "near-extreme" evidence reinforcement
When you see at least 3 of these 5 signals,
you can say:
"The downward trend may be approaching its final stage."
Note: This is "approaching the final stage," not "an immediate reversal."