Based on current market data (February 1, 2026) and analyses from major institutions, the overall trend of Bitcoin (BTC) in the coming month (February to early March) is expected to be “high-level consolidation, gathering strength for a rally.”

Although there is short-term pressure for profit-taking, the bullish forces still dominate, and the price is likely to remain within the core range of $78,000 to $95,000.

Here is a detailed analysis for you:

1. Core Judgment: Range Consolidation, Awaiting Breakout

The current market sentiment considers Bitcoin to be in a “digestive period.” After a rapid rise earlier, the market is accumulating energy for the next surge.

Current price anchor: approximately $78,192 - $81,078.

Short-term fluctuation range: $78,000 (strong support) to $95,000 (strong resistance).

Probability of direction: Upward probability > Downward probability. Although there may be short-term corrections, inflows of institutional funds and the halving expectations support the price, making a significant plunge less likely. Key levels | Price Prediction | Importance | Explanation
Upper Resistance | ~95,000 - 100,000 USD | ⭐⭐⭐ | Breaking through this range with volume will open new upside space.
Short-term Resistance | ~89,000 - 90,000 USD | ⭐⭐ | The current short-term ceiling and a dividing line between bulls and bears.
Support | ~77,600 - 78,000 USD | ⭐⭐⭐ | Very strong buy support level; caution if broken.
Extreme Stop-Loss | ~60,000 - 65,000 USD | ⭐ | “Deep dip buy point” in extreme pessimism, unlikely to be reached in the short term.

3. The Three Core Variables for the Next Month

💡 Halving Expectation (April Event)
Although Bitcoin’s “halving” occurs in April, the next month is the market’s preheating period for this event. Historical data shows that there is usually a preheating rebound before halving. Reduced miner selling pressure and increased hoarding demand will provide solid bottom support for the price.

🏛 Regulatory and Institutional Dynamics

Positive: Progress of the US “CLARITY Act” and Trump’s remarks on “Strategic Bitcoin Reserves” are providing long-term structural support for the market.

Risks: If the Federal Reserve’s rate cut pace is slower than expected (e.g., recent hawkish comments), it may lead to short-term liquidity tightening, triggering a price correction.

📉 Technical Signals
The current candlestick patterns show Bitcoin undergoing healthy consolidation. Although the short-term RSI indicates a need for correction, the long-term moving averages (such as the 50-day MA) still provide upward traction. The shrinking volume also suggests the market is “consolidating with decreasing volume,” which often precedes a trend change (up or down).

4. Your Trading Recommendations

Based on the current analysis, if you are a short-term or swing trader:

Buy the dip and sell the rally: Consider accumulating near $78,000 (long position), and consider taking profits or reducing positions near $90,000 - $95,000.

Beware of false breakouts: There may be “fake breakouts” or flash crashes in the short term. It is recommended to set stop-loss orders (e.g., exit if below $75,000).

Watch for breakout signals: Pay close attention to volume. If someday the volume suddenly surges and the price stabilizes above $85,000, the upward trend will be confirmed.

In summary: There is no need to worry too much about a crash in the next month. The main rhythm is range-bound consolidation, waiting for the market sentiment to heat up before the April halving. Patience and buying on dips are better strategies. #加密市场观察 Future Trend of BTC