Fed Chair Candidate Kevin Daejeon Shift in the Race - Wash's Win Rate Surges, Hasset's Rally Comes to a Halt

A single remark from former President Trump has completely overturned the landscape of the Federal Reserve Chair appointment. Following the President’s recent statement from the White House, the odds in prediction markets have shifted dramatically, and the standings of once-favored candidates are fluctuating wildly. In particular, the contest between Kevin Hasset and Kevin Wirth has entered a new phase.

Kevin Hasset, Announces He Will Remain in Office, Effectively Giving Up the Chair Position

Kevin Hasset, Chairman of the National Economic Council (NEC), has made his future clear. In a statement from the White House last Sunday, he mentioned that former President Trump wants him to stay in his current position and described it as “the most appropriate role for me right now.” Hasset called this “an honor and a privilege” and referred to the President as “a really good person.”

It is also reported that last week, Trump directly told Hasset at an event, “Honestly, I hope you stay in your position.” This suggests that Hasset is lowering his priority of being considered for the Fed Chair.

Prediction Market Turns Around - Wirth Surges 60%, Hasset and Waller Plummet

These developments were immediately reflected in the trading markets. Traders on the prediction platform Kalshi have increased the probability of Wirth becoming Chair to 60%, while Kevin Hasset is at 16%, and Christopher Waller at 14%. Data from Polymarket shows a similar trend, with Wirth at 60%, Hasset at 15%, and Waller at 13%.

This is a completely different picture from before. Previously, Wirth and Hasset had close odds, but since the President’s recent remarks, market sentiment has shifted rapidly. Wirth, a former Fed official, has emerged as the leading candidate, while Hasset, once a central contender, has seen his standing significantly decline.

Plenty of Candidates, Narrowing Down the Choices

There are still four main candidates in the race for Fed Chair. Besides Wirth, Hasset, and Waller, there is also BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. Rieder’s position was relatively weak, but recent indications that the U.S. Senate confirmation process might be smoother have given him a late boost.

However, based on current trading trends, the competition is rapidly consolidating around Wirth. Market participants have quickly responded to signals from President Trump.

Time is Running Out - Term Ends on May 15

Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15. Trump has announced that he will reveal his pick for the successor this month, but no specific schedule has been disclosed yet. Given the limited time remaining, background checks and Senate confirmation procedures for final candidates, including Wirth, are expected to proceed swiftly.

The market continues to watch closely to see how this crucial appointment will unfold.