ETH Technical Outlook: Ethereum Consolidates Below Key Fib Resistance After Sharp Corrective Decline

Ethereum remains in a medium-term corrective structure following the rejection from the $4,450–$4,950 macro resistance region. The breakdown below the rising trendline and subsequent loss of the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci cluster confirmed a transition from bullish continuation into a neutral-bearish market phase.
Price is currently stabilizing near the $2,950–$3,050 region, attempting to form a base after the impulsive selloff from the $4,000+ highs. This zone represents a critical decision area for ETH’s next directional move.
EMA Structure (Bearish to Neutral Bias)
20 EMA: $3,108
50 EMA: $3,134
100 EMA: $3,262
200 EMA: $3,321
ETH is trading below all major EMAs, with the 20 & 50 EMA cluster near $3,130 acting as immediate dynamic resistance. The EMA alignment remains bearish, indicating rallies are corrective unless price can reclaim and hold above the $3,260–$3,320 zone.
Fibonacci & Market Structure
0.786 Fib: $4,455
0.618 Fib: $4,063
0.5 Fib: $3,788
0.382 Fib: $3,513
0.236 Fib: $3,173
Fib 0: $2,623
Ethereum failed to sustain above the 0.382–0.5 Fib range, confirming continuation of the corrective structure. Current price action is holding above a strong historical demand zone between $2,900–$2,950, which is providing near-term downside support.
A clean breakdown below this zone would expose ETH to the $2,650–$2,620 support area, while a successful hold could allow a relief move back toward overhead resistance.
RSI Momentum
RSI is trading around 40–45, reflecting weak momentum with mild bearish pressure. No bullish divergence is present at this stage, suggesting consolidation rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
📊 Key Levels
Resistance
$3,130–$3,180 (20/50 EMA & 0.236 Fib)
$3,510–$3,520 (0.382 Fib)
$3,780–$3,800 (0.5 Fib)
$4,060 (0.618 Fib)
Support
$2,950–$2,900 (major demand zone)
$2,650–$2,620 (cycle base support)
RSI: 40–45 — neutral to bearish
📌 Summary
Ethereum is consolidating after a sharp corrective decline, holding above a critical demand zone near $2,900. While downside momentum has slowed, the broader structure remains bearish below $3,260–$3,320.
A sustainable recovery requires ETH to reclaim $3,510 and eventually stabilize above $3,780, while a breakdown below $2,900 would likely trigger another downside leg toward $2,620.
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