#欧美关税风波冲击市场 【January 20 Briefing: Seven Alarms and the Cognitive Singularity】

Chief Scenario Analyst: Eudora Qi

Seven alarms have been confirmed:

1. On-chain Ghosts: The ancient Bitcoin whale that remained silent for 13 years and gained 13,900 times, moving 909 BTC.
2. Internal Selling Pressure: Ethereum core treasury FG Nexus temporarily sold 2,500 ETH.
3. Ecosystem Shift: Meme coin platform Pump.fun established an investment department, indicating professionalization within the sector.
4. Market Temperature: Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 32 (fear zone, not extreme).
5. Macro Storm Center: Citibank warns that Yen weakness in 2026 may force the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates three times, potentially triggering global capital reflow.
6. Policy Anchor: The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January at 95% (market has priced in).
7. Rule Game: Fed Chair Powell will attend a Supreme Court hearing, challenging policy authority.

【Three-layer Pressure Structure Decoding】

* Belief Layer (Core Impact):
* Alarm 01 (Ancient Whale Movement): 【Red belief shake signal】. Challenges the narrative cornerstone that “Bitcoin is a long-term hold asset.”
* Alarm 02 (ETH Treasury Sell-off): 【Blue insider signal】. Resonates with whale behavior, indicating increased willingness among medium- to long-term holders to sell.
* Emotion and Structural Layer (Current State):
* Alarm 03 (Meme Fundification): 【Yellow market end signal】. The most speculative sector seeks “professionalization,” implying market risk appetite may shift from value discovery to pure gambling.
* Alarm 04 (Fear Index 32): 【Gray emotion meter】. Confirms market is in fear, but not extreme; further shocks possible.
* Rules and Environment Layer (Game Background):
* Alarm 05 (Citibank 2026 Warning): 【Green forward liquidity restructuring projection】. Long-term narrative seed: the logic of global carry trade may change, crypto could become a new destination.
* Alarm 06 (Fed Holding Steady): 【Black short-term expectation anchor】. No macro rescue in the next two weeks; markets must rely on themselves.
* Alarm 07 (Powell Hearing): 【Purple rule game disturbance】. Adds uncertainty to policy pathways.

【Stress Test Conclusion: Market Vulnerability Positioning】

The current market is undergoing a resonance test of three pressures: loosening long-term belief + internal confidence loss. In the context of lacking external liquidity rescue and expectations of future rule restructuring, market consensus is under severe challenge.

【Two-step Survival and Observation Strategy】

1. Conduct a position stress test:
* Face the “belief test” impact directly. Immediately review holdings: if your assets encounter events like “13-year whale movement” or “treasury sell-off,” do you still have confidence in holding? List uncertain assets for reduction and observation.
2. Focus on two key observation points:
* Observation Point A (Emotion Clearing Signal): Keep an eye on the “Fear Index.” If it can shift from current “fear” (32) to “extreme fear” (below 20), it will be an important short- to medium-term game signal.
* Observation Point B (Long-term Narrative Seed): Take “Citibank’s 2026 Japan rate hike warning” as a long-term learning topic, deeply explore the possibility of global capital flow turning to crypto. This is a forward cognitive layout, not a short-term trading basis.

Core: In systemic stress testing, cash and clear cognition are the only shields.

【Interaction and Cognitive Breakthrough】

* Quick logic question: Question: Which alarm simultaneously has the dual attributes of “disrupting long-term narrative” psychological impact and “revealing insider attitude”?

Among today’s seven alarms, which event combines both the “disrupting long-term narrative” psychological impact and “revealing insider attitude” attributes?

A. Crypto Fear & Greed Index drops to 32

B. The 13-year silent Bitcoin whale moves 909 BTC

C. Citibank warns that the Bank of Japan may raise rates three times in 2026

* Deduction note second creation award: Follow me, deconstruct your deep understanding of any “alarm,” post it as #压力测试与突防 topic in your feed, and @ me to participate in the lottery.

I am Chief Scenario Analyst Eudora Qi.

I do not predict market bottoms, only estimate cognitive peaks, and set coordinates for you.

Click follow, continue decoding and reviewing tomorrow.

Endure pressure, cut through noise. 2026, may we become builders of certainty.