Bitcoin's Rally Trap: Why Bears Are Calling Peaks Early

Bitcoin’s recent bounce from $80,600 to $92,860 has ignited fierce debate in the trading community. While bulls interpret this 15% swing as a genuine recovery, a growing chorus of bearish analysts is warning that these upswings should be treated as selling opportunities rather than trend reversals. The core thesis: this is a bull trap of historic proportions.

Fear Levels Haven’t Been This High Since 2021-2022

Search interest tells a compelling story. Google Trends data shows that searches for “Bitcoin bear market” have reached five-year highs, echoing only two previous instances of peak pessimism. Back in May 2021, when BTC sat near $60,000, similar fear spikes preceded a devastating 50%+ correction. Again in June 2022, around $26,000, search anxiety preceded the slide to $15,450.

AndrewBTC highlighted this pattern on X, noting that crowd terror often arrives just before major selloffs. The current spike suggests history may be repeating itself—but this time with a twist. Unlike previous cycles where fear marked local bottoms, today’s heightened anxiety arrives during a recovery phase, potentially signaling a more insidious trap for late-arriving bulls.

The Technical Red Flag: Bear Flag Pattern

Multiple analysts including Mister Crypto and Celeb Franzen have identified a bearish continuation pattern forming within Bitcoin’s recent bounce. The “bear flag” configuration—a technical structure that typically precedes additional downside during downtrends—points to a $77,100 target by December, representing approximately a 16% decline from current levels.

This downside projection isn’t arbitrary. Analysts calculate it by measuring the previous downtrend’s magnitude and adding it to a potential breakdown point near $88,000 support. The pattern’s architecture suggests that whatever rally develops could serve as a final bull trap before accelerating lower.

2021-2025 Fractal: A Roadmap to $40,000?

Perhaps the most alarming thesis comes from analyst Leshka, who uncovered an almost “exact” structural mirror between Bitcoin’s current price action and the 2021 cycle. The pattern includes a double-top formation, sharp breakdown to cycle support, followed by a deceptive rebound—which is precisely where BTC finds itself now.

In 2021, that bull trap preceded a brutal 50% decline. If the 2025 structure replicates the 2021 roadmap, Bitcoin could revisit the $40,000 region during early 2026, representing a 57% drop from today’s levels. Alex Wacy reinforces this bearish case, pointing out that Bitcoin has retreated from its multiyear ascending trendline resistance—a breakdown pattern historically followed by 70% drawdowns.

The Path Forward: $97,000 Before Reality Sets In

Before the inevitable correction, don’t be surprised if Bitcoin rallies toward $97,000. AndrewBTC’s analysis via Google Trends suggests one final push upward is plausible. But therein lies the trap’s danger: this move would look and feel like a genuine bull run resumption. Market participants will convince themselves that cycle resets are underway, that $150,000+ is back on the table, and that new all-time highs are imminent.

“Everyone will think the bull run is back,” AndrewBTC cautioned, “but it isn’t and the bear market starts.”

Why These Arguments Matter

The convergence of sentiment indicators (Google search peaks), technical patterns (bear flags), and historical fractals (2021 analogue) creates a compelling bearish narrative. Whether you subscribe to this pessimism entirely, the underlying message is clear: Bitcoin’s current strength shouldn’t be mistaken for a durable trend. In this environment, rallies remain opportunities to exit positions, not opportunities to add to them.

Current BTC price: $92.86K (as of January 19, 2026)