Bitcoin in 2026: When Asian restrictions meet institutional demand – what does divergence mean for the market

The beginning of 2026 brought a clear split in the Bitcoin market. Although BTC is oscillating around $93K with a minus 2.22% change over 24 hours, the current dynamic resembles less panic and more controlled adjustment. The key to understanding the current situation is recognizing that the price pressure is driven not by mass fear but by a confluence of forced circumstances – primarily regulatory changes in Asia.

Chinese Mining Ban Runs Deeper Than It Seems

Recent actions by Chinese authorities have caused a significant shakeup in global mining operations. About 1.3 GW of computational power was shut down in Xinjiang, meaning around 400,000 mining devices were disconnected. The result? Bitcoin’s hashrate dropped from 1.12 trillion TH/s to 1.07 trillion TH/s in just a few days.

This is not a marginal change. China accounts for about 14% of global computational capacity, so regional restrictions immediately translate into network weakness and selling pressure. For miners, this means tightening margins – with lower MAs and fixed energy costs, many operations have no choice but to reduce their positions.

Divergence: What Does It Mean for Bitcoin? Asia Sells, Institutions Buy

Here lies the paradox that defines the current moment. On-chain data show a consistent dominance of spot selling from Asian exchanges, while long-term holders (LTH) are reducing their stakes. At the same time, US spot ETF funds have resumed capital inflows – recently reaching $457 million in a single day.

This is precisely divergence – a phenomenon where different market participants act in opposite directions. It does not necessarily mean the market is panicking. Rather, it indicates that forced selling from one part of the world encounters systematic institutional buying from another.

Forced Redistribution Instead of Capitulation

Blockchain charts (on-chain) confirm an important detail: the current phase is more of a forced reset than classic seller panic. Miners, long-term holders, and Asian platforms are under pressure from fundamental changes – regulatory, energy-related, and macroeconomic. These players must adjust their positions.

But what about large institutional investors? They are still coming in. This asymmetry suggests that the current correction may be an opportunity for redistribution rather than a crisis of confidence.

Where Is Bitcoin Heading in the Second Half of 2026?

The current divergence has not yet decided Bitcoin’s fate this year. Hashrate is slowly stabilizing, but Asian pressure will persist. At the same time, institutional interest remains steady. This creates a scenario where volatility dominates – Bitcoin will be susceptible to regulatory shocks but not devoid of scalable buyers.

The outlook for 2026 depends on whether Asian forced sales will exhaust themselves before institutional accumulation slows down. What does divergence mean in practice? That the market will be divided – and this will be the turning point for future price movements.