Forecasts of the largest financial institutions for 2026: What to expect in the global markets?

The volatility of the American financial markets in the coming year will be primarily shaped by the Federal Reserve’s decisions. Barclays experts indicate that a further interest rate cut by the Fed is particularly likely in March. Moody’s Analytics analysts go further in their forecasts, suggesting that the Fed may decide on as many as three rate reductions in the first half of 2026. This expansionary policy will have far-reaching consequences for the entire U.S. economy.

The labor market in the United States is expected to experience a dynamic year. JPMorgan predicts that after an initial slowdown, workers will witness a gradual recovery in the employment market. Meanwhile, European institutions are preparing for their own challenges – according to Deutsche Bank, the European banking sector in 2026 will mainly focus on expansion through mergers and acquisitions, seeking growth where markets are already saturated.

On the Asian front, the momentum will be significantly higher. The Bank of Japan will gradually raise interest rates, according to ING, reflecting a cautious approach to normalizing monetary policy. Meanwhile, Danske Bank expects an increase in global market liquidity in the coming weeks, which should support rising prices in emerging markets.

The Chinese stock market is in a decidedly better position. CITIC Securities believes that the bull run in the A-share market could continue throughout 2026, supported by local economic reforms. Industrial Securities forecasts that the Hong Kong stock market will grow gradually, resembling a “torch climb” – a nonlinear but consistent rise with natural corrections. A particularly promising outlook is seen in the automotive sector – BOC International predicts that the Chinese automotive industry will enter 2026 decisively, and in the first quarter, it may enter a phase of reducing excess inventories, opening prospects for strong production growth.

These diverse forecasts from the golden standard of financial institutions indicate a year full of opportunities, but also challenges – from recalibrating monetary policy in the West to strong expansion in Asian markets.