2026-01-17 09:00:42

#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 Is there still a chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates? The market has the answer.

The CME FedWatch tool shows only a 5% probability of a rate cut, and Polymarket is more straightforward — 95% of the odds are betting on maintaining the current rate. Why so confident? Look at the data: although inflation has fallen back to 2.7%, this is just surface-level; rent and service costs haven't moved much, so the Federal Reserve naturally has to keep its stance.

In a high-interest-rate environment, cryptocurrencies and other risk assets are under pressure. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding investments is evident. Want a short-term surge? It's almost impossible. The December employment report was below expectations, and although inflation has eased, the extent isn't enough to shake the Fed's decision.

Unless inflation drops significantly, the Fed won't take major action in the near term. For the crypto market, rather than waiting for rate cuts, it's better to prepare for the long term. Risk sentiment is high — this is the current reality.

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AirdropHunterWang

· 13h ago

95% leverage maintained interest rates, now the Federal Reserve is really determined. So we might as well accept it, no more short-term dreams of rapid gains. High interest rates are truly tough, risk assets are all taking a hit. Instead of waiting for rate cuts every day, it's better to be steady and accumulate coins. Rent and services, these two "stubborn" sectors, remain unchanged, so the Federal Reserve has to stay on edge. Inflation at 2.7% doesn't seem high, but they simply don't buy into that. Short-term stay flat, long-term planning is the real way to go. In this environment, anyone chasing quick money will have to fall. Actually, rate cuts were always just a fantasy; the market has long played it clear. We need to learn how to survive in a high-interest environment. Wait until inflation truly drops significantly. Trying to rush now is pointless.

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GweiWatcher

· 19h ago

95% odds clearly indicate the issue. The Federal Reserve is determined not to cut interest rates, and you still want to rely on rate cuts to buy the dip? Dream on.

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CryptoSurvivor

· 19h ago

95% odds to maintain interest rates, it seems the market's mindset is crystal clear. Don't expect interest rate cuts in the short term. Rent and service costs are still rising, the Federal Reserve definitely won't loosen its grip. A surge under high interest rates? Dream on, brother. Long-term planning is the way to go. Inflation needs to drop significantly for a real change; the current decline is nowhere near enough. Instead of obsessing over rate cuts every day, it's better to prepare for the long-term market. With short-term risk sentiment so high, you still need to keep a steady mindset. Opportunity cost is right there; investments with no returns are bound to be pressed down and rubbed. So, the smartest move right now is to stay put and wait for real signals to appear.

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rugdoc.eth

· 19h ago

95% of the odds favor this side. The Federal Reserve is really determined this time; don't even think about a short-term surge.

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ArbitrageBot

· 19h ago

95% of the odds have been maintained, it's time to give up, everyone. Waiting for interest rate cuts? Instead of fantasizing, better stock up on chips. No movement on rent, the Federal Reserve is determined. Short-term surge? Wake up, now is the time to endure. Before inflation drops significantly, rate cuts are pure nonsense. Still hoping to get rich in this environment? Dream on, brother. Opportunity cost is right here, crypto has to come slowly. Honestly, now is a great time for long-term accumulation. A 5% probability is not a probability; that’s just no hope. With risk sentiment so high, lying flat is the way to go.

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AirdropHustler

· 19h ago

It's the same story again. The Federal Reserve just won't cut interest rates, and us crypto folks might as well wait to die. With only a 5% chance, what more do you need? We should have accepted it long ago. Rent and service costs haven't moved, and the Federal Reserve is clearly determined to keep rates fixed. Don't expect a short-term explosion. Instead of waiting every day for a rate cut, it's better to buy the dip and hold coins for the next round. Anyway, this turbulence won't come up with any new tricks. Opportunity cost is right there. High interest rates are the enemy of BTC. Ouch. With a 95% probability of maintaining the current policy, the market has already given the answer. We're still dreaming here. Waiting for a significant drop in inflation, or there's no hope in the short term.

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BTCRetirementFund

· 19h ago

95% leverage maintains the interest rate, what is it telling us? It means there's no hope in the short term. Rent and service fees remain unchanged, and the Federal Reserve has no solution. Instead of waiting for interest rate cuts, it's better to adjust your mindset early and prepare for a long-term battle.

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