#数字资产市场动态 The market is always moving, and ups and downs are common. No one can predict the next move with certainty; we can only watch the data step by step.

Recently, an on-chain data analysis team pointed out an interesting phenomenon: this recent rebound in Bitcoin looks more like a false alarm rather than a true recovery. Why? Because the market's real demand is still in the freezer, not warmed up yet.

Their report states plainly: "Since November 21, Bitcoin has risen 21%, which looks fierce at first glance. But although there are some signs of demand warming up, overall it remains weak." This is the so-called bear market rebound—an occasional surge in price within a generally downward trend, but it doesn't change the market's fundamental nature. Research lead Julio Moreno added that behind this rebound, the old problem of demand contraction is still causing trouble.

The data comparison is quite interesting. Bitcoin previously fell about 19%, even breaking below the 365-day moving average (this line is the lifeline for CryptoQuant to judge bull or bear markets). Since November 21, it rebounded about 21%. But now? The price is approaching this moving average (around $101,000), yet it has not been able to stabilize. $BNB

Most painfully, this scene played out during the 2022 bear market. Back then, Bitcoin also broke below the moving average and rebounded strongly, only to get stuck at the average and then turn downward again.

The analysis team candidly said: "At that time, many people were shouting that the bear market was over, the four-year cycle was invalid, and a super cycle was coming. Now market sentiment is pretty much the same. But the fundamentals and technical indicators are telling us that we are still in a bear market." This statement hits deep.