2026-01-17 09:00:32

#数字资产市场动态 Is the Federal Reserve really going to cut interest rates? CME data is heartbreaking😅

Just looked at the data, the probability of a rate cut is only 5%, and Polymarket is even more extreme—the 95% of bets are on maintaining the current rate. Why is that? Although inflation has fallen to 2.7%, rent and various service costs are still stubbornly at the ceiling, so the Fed dares not make any reckless moves.

For risky assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks, this is bad news. The returns on risk-free investments are right there, and opportunity costs have suddenly risen. In the short term, it’s unlikely to see the kind of crazy rally we saw before.

Looking at the December employment report, it’s another "below expectations," and the inflation slowdown is also quite tepid. The Fed is unlikely to take any big actions in the near future. The only thing that could change the script is a sudden cliff dive in inflation— but what’s the probability of that? You guys can do the math.

As for risk sentiment, it will need to stay tight in the short term. Don’t hold onto hopes of a rate cut.

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SatoshiHeir

· 14h ago

It should be pointed out that behind this CME data lies a seriously underestimated argument—the 5% probability of rate cuts, which essentially falsifies the market's collective illusion of a "soft landing." Let me be frank: while you are still waiting for rate cuts, I have already seen the truth in on-chain data. The devilish detail of sticky rent inflation is enough to permanently close the Federal Reserve's policy window. Clearly, this is not a cyclical issue but a structural dilemma.

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BtcDailyResearcher

· 14h ago

A 5% probability? Doesn't that mean almost none? The Federal Reserve is clearly determined to keep tightening. Real talk, if there's no rate cut, we need to change our strategy. Don't stick to that crazy bullish script anymore. Inflation is so sticky, especially in the service sector, it's really hard to bring down. It's a bit hopeless. Looking at it, I'm a bit tired. We need to see some sideways movement for a while. If housing rent isn't resolved, the Federal Reserve shouldn't expect to move. It's written all over their face. Once opportunity costs rise, risk assets need to cool down. The current environment really isn't as wild.

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PrivacyMaximalist

· 14h ago

5% probability? That's hilarious. The Federal Reserve has no intention of loosening its grip at all. --- So we still have to be suppressed by arbitrage rates. There's really no more room for imagination in crypto this time. --- Inflation is just stuck there, not moving. The Federal Reserve will wait and see for another two months' data. --- I’ve known this for a long time. Those still hoping for rate cuts are just overthinking it. --- Polymarket's bets are not fooling anyone; the market has already accepted it. --- With risk-free returns so high, who the hell cares about crypto anymore? --- Just waiting for inflation to plummet dramatically, but is that even possible? --- In the short term, it will remain dull. Don’t expect any market movements.

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SolidityNewbie

· 14h ago

A 5% probability, which basically means it's impossible. The Federal Reserve is really being tough this time; we crypto holders can only keep holding on. --- Polymarket's 95% probability of maintaining interest rates is ridiculous. It feels like we have to wait until inflation drops off a cliff, but when will that be? Nobody knows. --- So right now, it's all about high interest rates. The spring of crypto still has to wait. The opportunity cost really hits hard. --- Rent and service fees are hitting the ceiling; the Federal Reserve is stuck. We still have to endure tough times, right? --- Don't dream of rate cuts; that's the tone for the short term. Unless inflation drops sharply, there's no hope. --- The employment report was disappointing again, inflation is sluggish, and the Federal Reserve remains steady as an old dog. What else can we do? --- 5% against 95%, what does this data say? It clearly shows the Federal Reserve is determined to keep defending it. --- Regarding risk assets, don't hold out hope in the short term. The risk-free rate is right there, and the game rules have changed.

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