#美联储货币政策 The uncertainty around the Fed Chair nomination is resurfacing, making this game increasingly interesting. Haskett has fallen from an absolute advantage to 44%, while Wosh has surged back to 33%—market money doesn't lie, reflecting a re-pricing of policy styles.

From a trader's perspective, changes in the probability of a Chair candidate often signal expectations for future monetary policy adjustments. Haskett represents a relatively hawkish stance, while Wosh's policy inclination still needs observation, but the market adjusting expectations itself is a strong signal. Over the past few days, I've been tracking several macro traders who are adept at macro trading; they are all proactively positioning for this variable—some adjusting their US debt exposure, others re-evaluating their non-USD currency pairs.

Honestly, big variables like the Fed Chair selection can’t be underestimated in their impact on follow-trade strategies. If you're following more aggressive traders with higher risk appetite, such policy expectation reversals can directly disrupt their position logic; but for macro hedge funds, it's different—they tend to strengthen risk management due to this uncertainty. My advice is to review your follow-trade portfolio recently—confirm how your counterparts are responding to these expectation shifts. This is more insightful than just looking at the yield curve to judge whether they truly have solid strength.

The answer will be clear in January—be prepared to respond accordingly.