When geopolitical turbulence collides with rising equity valuations, what's actually driving the markets? Here's the real question: does policy chaos ultimately matter for stock returns, or is it just noise in the short term? There are three plausible scenarios worth considering. The first possibility—and perhaps the simplest—is that political uncertainty simply doesn't move the needle on long-term returns. Sure, we see volatility spikes when headlines hit, but beneath the surface, fundamentals may be what truly dictates asset prices over time.