RIVER's short position this time is indeed fierce. After a rapid decline from the high of $42 in early January, it is now oscillating between $20 and $28, down more than 30% from its peak.

There are many technical issues. After rising to an extreme level, the RSI became overbought, and a double top pattern also emerged. These two signals stacking together triggered profit-taking by the bulls. After January 14, the selling pressure was like a floodgate opening, and the market showed no signs of effective support.

What’s more heartbreaking is the blow to the fundamentals — between January 5 and 12, the project team released multiple large token amounts, sharply increasing market liquidity pressure. Meanwhile, the derivatives market still holds $1.5 billion in high-leverage positions. As soon as sentiment reverses, a large number of longs will be forced to liquidate, which becomes the last straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Don’t forget the trust crisis. The topic of centralized holdings has been widely discussed on social media, with many questioning the true situation of the project. Under this public opinion pressure, the momentum for new buying has clearly been waning.

In the short term, if the $20 level cannot hold, the price may test the support levels at $15-18. However, the launch of staking in Q1 and Q2 might become a turning point. For now, be cautious — there are opportunities for shorts, but don’t be too greedy, and hold off on bottom-fishing for now.