Recently, many analysts are bearish on Bitcoin. They point out that, based on the monthly chart, the current trend is somewhat similar to the period from January to April 2022. Some even speculate that history might repeat itself, and Bitcoin could experience a continuous three-month decline.

However, this logic doesn't hold up well. Looking back at that period in 2022, there were indeed frequent negative news and headlines, and the double top pattern gave the market ample reason to be bearish. The current situation is completely different.

The market changes over the past two years are quite obvious—mainstream institutions have entered the market in large numbers, making Bitcoin's performance particularly eye-catching. By 2026, the pace of institutional investment is expected to continue rising. The data is clear: in just the past half month, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $1.6 billion in funds.

These funds are not retail investors' small amounts; they come from organized and disciplined institutional capital. They won't rush to exit due to short-term fluctuations.

In the new year, Bitcoin is very likely to follow a similar path as the US stock market, stepping onto a new phase of a long-term bull market. The fundamentals have already changed—continuous institutional accumulation and a relatively clear policy environment. These factors make it very unlikely for Bitcoin to experience the kind of consecutive crashes seen in 2022 again.