【ETH Multi-Cycle Analysis: Weak Volatility on Trend Support】

Ethereum current price is 3287, at a typical technical junction: the long-term upward structure remains intact, but short-term momentum has clearly weakened, and the price is stuck in a weak consolidation near a key trend line.

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Multi-Cycle Technical Status

Daily Level (Major Cycle): Trend Structure Unchanged

· Price remains above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (3312), overall within the upward channel since late December
· MACD indicator (DIF:21.95, DEA:32.30) stays above the zero line in a strong zone, but the red histogram (-10.36) indicates upward momentum is temporarily paused
· Clear key support zones: 3254 (Bollinger lower band) and previous support level form a joint defense line
· Core judgment: The larger upward trend framework has not been broken, and the current pullback is still a normal correction within the trend

4-Hour Level (Minor Cycle): Clear Weak Consolidation

· Price has fallen below the Bollinger middle band (3288), indicating short-term structural weakening
· MACD is entangled below the zero line (DIF:-3.91, DEA:-5.01), with a weak green momentum histogram (1.09), both bullish and bearish momentum are insufficient
· Bollinger Bands are noticeably narrowing (upper band 3309, lower band 3268), volatility has dropped to recent lows
· Core judgment: The market is entering a “suffocation” phase before a directional choice, with narrow-range oscillation awaiting catalysts

Contradiction Point: The major cycle requires the bullish trend line (3254) not to be effectively broken, while the small cycle shows the price has already weakened in the short term and lacks upward momentum. The market is testing the resilience of the trend.

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Key Position Battles

Upper Resistance Zone:

1. Short-term resistance: 3288-3290 (small cycle Bollinger middle band). Stabilizing here can alleviate short-term weakness.
2. Core resistance: 3310-3312 (small cycle upper band and daily middle band overlap zone). Breakthrough here can confirm the end of correction and restart the upward trend.
3. Strong resistance: 3370-3410 (daily upper band and previous high area).

Lower Support Zone:

1. Short-term defense line: 3268-3270 (small cycle Bollinger lower band). Falling below this would break the small cycle box.
2. Trend lifeline: 3254-3260 (daily Bollinger lower band and psychological level). This is the bull-bear dividing line; a valid break below would threaten the medium-term trend.
3. Deep support: 3120-3150 (previous heavy trading zone).

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Operational Strategy Framework

Framework One: Range Oscillation Strategy (Applicable for 3268-3310)
Current price is in the lower part of the short-term box; before the trend clarifies, high sell and low buy can be executed.

· Bearish reference: rebound to 3295-3305, if a 15-minute overbought signal appears, try a light short position, stop loss at 3320, target 3275-3268.
· Bullish reference: pullback to 3268-3275, if a 1-hour stabilization signal appears, try a light long position, stop loss at 3250, target 3295-3310.

Framework Two: Breakout Follow-up Strategy

· Upward breakout: volume breakout above 3312 and stabilization can be seen as a short-term correction end signal. Consider adding longs on pullback to 3295-3300, stop loss at 3275, target 3340-3370.
· Downward breakdown: volume drop below 3260 and inability to recover within 2 hours would test the trend support. Consider a light short near 3270 on rebound, stop loss at 3290, target 3230-3254.

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Core Observation and Risk Control

1. Volume-Price Coordination: Any breakout must be confirmed by significant volume increase. No-volume rebounds or downward declines are traps.
2. Correlation: Keep a close eye on BTC at the 95000 level; ETH’s linkage with BTC is very strong.
3. Time Window: Be aware of liquidity fluctuations during the European and American trading sessions.
4. Primary Principle: Near the key trend line 3254, any trading should be regarded as short-term, with strict position control. Until the price clearly departs from the 3260-3310 zone, the market does not have a basis for large unilateral moves.

(The market is currently digesting selling pressure over time and testing trend support. Subscribers can access precise order points, dynamic stop-loss adjustments, and position management plans for the above two frameworks.)#周末行情分析