#机构投资者入场 The first decline after the halving, this data is indeed worth paying attention to. I’ve summarized some on-chain signals — the pace of institutional capital inflows has clearly slowed down. Looking at the fund withdrawals after the peak in October, the attitude of large holders has shifted to a wait-and-see stance.

Pantoja’s view hits the key point: after ETFs and institutional funds entered the market, Bitcoin’s pricing logic has changed. The four-year cycle driven by retail investor sentiment is indeed failing. Currently, macro liquidity and Federal Reserve policy expectations are playing a bigger role. From a capital perspective, institutional entry has actually reduced market volatility, but it has also increased the demand for strong fundamentals.

However, Thielen’s perspective also makes sense — the cycle itself isn’t dead, it’s just evolving in form. My observation is that this year’s institutional movements will be a key signal. If large funds continue to net inflow, even short-term corrections could be opportunities for accumulation; but if outflows continue to expand, it indicates that institutions are indeed lowering their expectations for 2025.

The key still depends on the distribution of chips in on-chain contract addresses, especially the recent activity of wallets holding millions of dollars — their decisions often lead market reactions by 3-6 weeks.