#美联储降息 The Fed's recent moves are interesting. Once the meeting minutes were released, market interpretations varied widely, but the core logic is quite clear — officials are torn between inflation and unemployment, and are indecisive.

Looking at the data: the November unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, while consumer price increases were below expectations. In this environment, the majority support further rate cuts, but disagreements exist over timing and magnitude. Some officials even believe they should hold steady and wait for more data before making a move.

From a follow-the-leader perspective, this is a classic "policy game period." Market expectations for the January meeting to keep rates unchanged are strengthening, which could lead to short-term risk adjustments in commodities, tech stocks, and emerging markets. Currently, several aggressive traders I follow are dynamically adjusting their positions, with the logic: wait for further clarity on Fed dissent before adding.

In contrast, more conservative traders are staying put, accustomed to shrinking positions amid uncertainty. This reflects style differences — aggressive traders bet on a rebound after policy clarity, while conservative traders hedge against volatility during periods of disagreement.

My advice is to decide whom to follow based on your risk tolerance. There's no rush to bottom fish; waiting for clearer signals from the Fed will be more solid.