Recently, I've been closely watching the XPL contract chart, and my heart keeps pounding. The price has been oscillating around $0.14 repeatedly, and this level clearly cannot hold.

To be honest, the situation isn't very good. The important psychological barrier at $0.15 has already been broken, which is itself a bad signal. Looking back at the past week, the decline exceeds 16%, and all technical indicators are pointing downward—MACD, RSI, these tools are telling the same story—selling pressure is accumulating.

But what really keeps people awake is the fundamentals. The community is discussing the "big event" in July—25 million XPL tokens are about to be unlocked, which is a quarter of the total circulating supply. Even more heartbreaking is that the cost basis for these tokens is only 5 cents, so at current prices, holders are sitting on substantial profits. Just think about how tempting that is; the expected selling pressure is accordingly high.

Market opinions on the future are diverse. Optimists believe that if the ecosystem's no-gas transfer feature can truly be implemented and applied, it might absorb some of the selling pressure. But pessimists think that the selling pressure in July is too risky; once confidence collapses, the decline could be even sharper.

This is the current situation: the technical side has broken down, and there is a ticking time bomb on the fundamentals. Using leverage on the contract would amplify volatility exponentially. Should you buy the dip or wait and see? You really need to think carefully before acting. Sometimes, controlling yourself from trading is the best move.