2026-01-17 05:32:07

Since mid-November, Bitcoin's price has rebounded approximately 21%, looking quite promising. But if you look closely at on-chain data, you'll find that things might not be that simple.

A blockchain data analysis team recently pointed out that the nature of this rebound warrants caution—it resembles a typical technical rebound during a bear market rather than a genuine trend reversal. What's the most critical issue? Market demand has not improved at all.

Let's look at some specific details. Bitcoin is currently stuck at a key level—around the 365-day moving average (approximately $101,000). Historically, this price level has been quite significant; during past bear markets, it often served as a ceiling for rebounds before continuing to decline. Whether this pattern will repeat this time depends on subsequent movements.

Looking at demand-side data is even more sobering. Over the past month, apparent demand (an indicator measuring the true buying and selling pressure of Bitcoin) has shrunk by about 67,000 BTC. What about the US Bitcoin ETF? In November, it sold off 54,000 BTC. Although large-scale selling has stopped now, there hasn't been any sustained accumulation either.

There is a faint positive signal in the market—Coinbase's premium indicator briefly turned positive—but this is far from enough to suggest that overall demand has truly rebounded. Ultimately, the market is still in a shrinking state. Comparing it to the 2022 bear market trend, the current price volatility and characteristics feel somewhat familiar.

So, the most important thing to watch now is not the rebound itself, but when demand will truly pick up. Without this foundation, even a high rebound can easily become a castle in the air.

BTC-2,54%

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OnChainArchaeologist

· 20h ago

Here it is again, whether it rebounds or not depends on demand. Without demand, everything is pointless. --- ETF is still unloading, can this rebound really lift off? I doubt it. --- The 365-day moving average hurdle—how many times has it failed in history? Can it break this time? --- Selling 67,000 coins—feels like the market is still sluggish. --- So, without real money from institutions coming in, no matter how excited retail investors are, they can't change the overall situation. --- Coinbase premium turning positive—can that be bragged about? Those analysts are really good at spinning stories. --- Feels like we're still repeating the old tricks from 2022, just with a different team involved. --- Before demand picks up, everything else is just empty talk. No matter how spectacular the rebound, it's just a smoke screen.

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NFT_Therapy_Group

· 01-17 06:00

A 21% rebound looks impressive, but on-chain demand has shrunk by 67,000 coins... This is just ridiculous. This is the classic bear market rebound trick. The 101k level has historically been a ceiling several times, and it's now very difficult to break through. Is the ETF bottoming out? No, they sold another 54,000 coins in November. What kind of demand recovery is that? Don't be fooled by the superficial rebound; the market's essence is still shrinking. The 2022 pattern might be repeating. Without demand picking up, no matter how high the rebound, it's all in vain.

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BlockchainBouncer

· 01-17 05:56

Another fake rebound, I've seen it too many times, I'm really tired. --- On-chain data doesn't lie, but what about demand? None. That's it. --- Reaching the 101k level is really a hurdle; the probability of history repeating itself is very high. --- Even though ETF accumulation has stopped, some are still touting a rebound. Wake up, everyone. --- Before demand picks up, any rebound is just a paper tiger. Let's wait and see. --- Is Coinbase premium turning positive just once considered good news? Ha, overthinking it. --- The 2022 trend is repeating; it feels like the next chapter has already been written. --- The term "castle in the air" is good, but I think a more accurate word is "scalping the leeks." --- A shrinkage of 67,000 units in apparent demand is the most telling data. --- Rebounds are just illusions; real market demand is the true mirror.

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alpha_leaker

· 01-17 05:56

Rebounds are all fake; without real demand support, everything is pointless. --- It's the same old story, the technical rebound trick again—history is repeating itself. --- ETFs are being sold off, demand is shrinking—how can there be a real rise? Dream on. --- Wait, are we about to repeat 2022 again? I need to reduce my holdings. --- Coinbase premium turning positive isn't even a significant signal? Then it really depends on demand. --- A house built on air, well said—without genuine buying support, it's just a joke.

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RebaseVictim

· 01-17 05:43

Basically, it's a rebound in vain, without real money demand backing it up. --- It's the same old trick again, technical rebounds come and go, just to trap people. --- ETFs are still being sold off, Coinbase was just a flash in the pan, no matter how fierce the rebound, it's just a paper tiger. --- Stuck at 101k, ready to go down? History really loves to repeat itself. --- Demand shrank by 67,000 coins? Then why should I get on board? Let's wait and see. --- Looks impressive, but it's all fake once you check on-chain data. --- Coinbase was happy for just two seconds after going live, this market is really a bit funny. --- A rebound without a demand foundation will eventually have to pay the price. --- I haven't forgotten the scene from 2022, are we going to go through it all over again? --- Bear market rebounds are like this, each one more hopeless than the last.

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LayerZeroHero

· 01-17 05:41

It's the same old story again... A 21% rebound looks impressive, but on-chain data shows everyone is dead. Basically, it's just retail traders hyping themselves up; no one is actually buying. ETFs are selling, and whales are also inactive. Why would it go up? Let's wait until the demand side recovers before talking. Right now, going all-in is just courting death.

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MevSandwich

· 01-17 05:38

A 21% rebound is just that, on-chain data clearly shows it's just hot air. --- Another technical rebound, this pattern has been played for over two years, and it's really getting annoying. --- ETFs are still selling off, and you still have the nerve to say demand is warming up? Wake up, everyone. --- Is the 101k card going to be smashed again? History just keeps repeating itself. --- Before demand picks up, everything else is pointless—it's purely a game of bagholders. --- A shrinkage of 67,000 in apparent demand... this data is quite harsh. --- Coinbase premium just needs to correct itself, then consider it a signal. That's way too optimistic, brother. --- Compared to the 2022 bear market, this feels exactly the same, it's so dull. --- The term "castles in the air" is used perfectly; that's how I got trapped. --- Without real buying support, any rebound is just a mirage.

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BearHugger

· 01-17 05:33

It's the same story again... a 21% rebound and they start celebrating, but on-chain data shows it's all fake. ETFs are still dumping, demand has shrunk by 67k, and they still dare to boast? 101k is the ceiling; history will repeat itself.

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