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"The four-year cycle curse has been broken." A recent major discussion has caused quite a stir in the crypto community—many mistakenly believe that 2026 will be a big bear market, but that's not the case at all. The core logic is as follows: the four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halving has completely failed, and 2026 may instead become the trigger point for a structural super cycle.

Just look at the market’s actual response. The cryptocurrency index surged by 8.69% last week, with daily trading volume surpassing 10 billion USD. The Bitcoin fear and greed index has remained at a low level, and leveraged positions have been cleared to safe levels. Even more interesting are the moves of smart money: Harvard’s endowment fund invested $116.7 million in Bitcoin ETFs, nine Ethereum spot ETFs absorbed over $6.7 billion in capital inflows, and even emerging countries like Indonesia are seriously discussing including Bitcoin in their national reserves. Does this really look like a bear market? Frankly, it’s just big funds following the trend to buy the dip.

🚀 The four variables of the super cycle: the rules are being rewritten

The failure of the cycle is rooted in a fundamental shift in market logic—from retail dominance to institutional pricing. Four key variables are driving this transformation:

**1. ETFs completely reshape liquidity patterns**
Global Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted over $115 billion in total funds. This influx of compliant capital has broken the old short-cycle rhythm of "halving-speculation-collapse," replaced by sustained institutional buying.

**2. Sovereign-level applications are gradually being implemented**
Apart from Indonesia, countries like Brazil and Argentina are also advancing the process of adopting Bitcoin as a national asset. This is no longer small-scale retail investment but a strategic allocation at the national level.