By 2026, Bitcoin is experiencing a transition from a niche asset to a mainstream financial instrument. Three forces are simultaneously exerting influence: the cyclical patterns of blockchain technology itself, the gradual clarification of global regulatory frameworks, and an increasing influx of institutional funds. As these factors combine, the market’s imagination for the price of cryptocurrencies seems to be suddenly opening up—although uncertainties still exist, this game is rewriting the definition of value for crypto assets.

When it comes to the price drivers of Bitcoin, the four-year halving cycle has always been the most fundamental logic. The fourth halving, completed last year, directly reduced the block reward to 3.125 coins, meaning the current annual inflation rate is only 0.782%. Imagine this—gold’s production growth rate is 1.5%-2%, yet Bitcoin is actually more scarce. This scarcity inherently supports its value from a mathematical perspective. Historical records show that after the first three halvings, within 1 to 1.5 years, prices experienced significant increases. Especially in 2020, the price surged by 475%. Now, as we enter Q1 of 2026, this period coincides with the most intense phase of halving dividend releases, providing structural support for the price. For miners, although the halving temporarily reduces profits, it also clears out inefficient mining equipment, reducing market sell pressure. Surviving miners tend to hoard Bitcoin, which in turn optimizes the entire supply and demand relationship.

On the external catalyst front, regulatory policies are becoming increasingly clear. In 2025, the US’s digital asset regulatory framework will be gradually established, clarifying Bitcoin’s classification as a commodity and eliminating legal gray areas. This certainty itself is a huge signal—previous doubts among institutional investors are gradually dissipating.