Gold prices this week ranged between 4513 and 4642, closing at 4595. After a rally at the beginning of the week, it entered a high-level consolidation. From a long-term perspective, it is already near the top of the ascending wedge, and the EMA moving averages are weakening. The 4-hour MACD lines are approaching the zero axis. Although a bullish engulfing pattern appeared on smaller timeframes, the medium-term correction pressure is indeed building under this background.

The Federal Reserve's actions remain key. The market generally expects the first rate cut to start in June, with only about a 5% chance of a cut in January. Recently, US economic data has shown strong resilience, coupled with hawkish statements from officials, which are suppressing gold prices. However, Powell's tenure remains uncertain, and the long-term rate-cut cycle still supports gold valuation. Looking at the international situation, tensions between Iran and the US, ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflicts, and unrest in South America and Greenland are also stirring up volatility. High US debt levels and accelerated de-dollarization are further boosting safe-haven capital flows into gold.

Overall, it is likely that next week will see a correction. In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to mainly follow the short side after resistance on the rally, and pay attention to the rebound of the small gap at 4510 during the week.