Market noise created by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations fluctuations and Trump’s remarks are just surface phenomena. Those who truly understand the market have long seen through this—this wave is the main force doing a shakeout, and the medium-term upward channel of the crypto market has not been broken.

**Macro Perspective: The bearish factors have already been fully digested**

CME data shows that the probability of no rate cut by 2026 is only 11.8%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 32.1%. At first glance, liquidity seems to be tightening? But there is a key point that many people overlook—Trump’s team’s friendly stance towards crypto assets is already a certainty expectation. No matter who becomes the Fed Chair, the overarching background of "geopolitical turmoil + dollar credit devaluation" remains unchanged. The development of the Venezuela situation has already validated this—Bitcoin’s appeal as a decentralized store of value is exploding. The market had already priced in the negative impact of delaying rate cuts last week, with BTC rising from $88,000 to $96,000. This trend indicates everything.

**On-chain: Funds speak through actions**

What are the real players doing? Whale address 0x10a increased its position by adding 25 BTC longs at $92,074, investing $2.3 million, leveraging 7x to control a position of $14.3 million. And it’s not just Bitcoin—this whale is also deploying longs on SOL and PEPE simultaneously—this is smart money voting with real cash, and the medium-term trend is worth paying attention to.

Looking at ETFs, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a daily inflow of $287 million, hitting a nearly three-month high. The total daily inflow into US spot ETFs reached $471 million, indicating institutional funds are quietly entering the market. The market structure has also been purified, with bullish signals in the options market reaching over 45%. All these point to the same story: big money is voting with their feet, and the next phase’s direction is already very clear.